Archive for the ‘The Earth’ Category

How Our Cultural Beliefs Effect The Way We Treat The earth

Aug 15th, 12 / 0 Comments

 

 

 

How Our Cultural Beliefs Affect the Way We Treat the Earth

Lanie Johnson, M.A. and Ken Fischman, Ph.D.

March 25, 2007(rev. 10/3/11)

Our cultural values, customs and beliefs affect the way we treat the Earth, and they have led to the twin crises of Peak Oil and Climate Change

                                                          1.  The Man Who Hated Bees

                                                                     by Lanie Johnson

         Ten years ago Ken and I left New York City in a truck camper and headed out West. We‘d intended to take about a year to look over a few towns and decide in which one we wanted to settle.

Seven years later we were still wandering in that truck camper. We had many adventures before we came to Sandpoint, some of them even good. But our most important adventure was our change of perspective.

We were able to see our culture with fresh eyes because for the first time, we were living outside it, wandering over the landscape but not being part of it.

For example, I remember the day we met the man who hated bees.

It was an early spring day, and we decided to ride our bikes in a marvelous park, along the Platt River right in the middle of the Denver.  There they had planted what seemed like millions of colorful wild flowers.

It was heavenly, and as we rode along we fell in with another biker. He told us that he was a retired engineer, living in the Denver suburbs and that he often rode his bike through that park.

Now, we were passing through the fields of magnificent and variously colored wild flowers that gently waved in the breeze.

But without warning, that man’s demeanor suddenly changed. He waved his arms around desperately as he rode.  “Those damn bees! Those damn bees,” he shouted. “They might sting me!”

As we passed out of range of the bees, he calmed down somewhat, but still agitated, he turned toward us and said angrily, “It’s those damn flowers! They’re attracting the bees. I wish they would cut them all down. That would get rid of the bees!”

b. How Our Culture Treats Others

The memory of that man still haunts me.  He had seemed like such a nice person, and probably was, under other circumstances.  Still, I’m grateful to the man who hated bees because I learned a lot about our culture from his behavior.

Never mind the question of whether or not bees and wild flowers are useful to us; that’s not the point. Do they have a right to be here on their own? Many people seem to believe that only man has a right to be here  – because he is special and clearly superior to everyone and everything else. If something is in your way – if it merely inconveniences you, get rid of it. Move it, destroy it, annihilate it if you see fit. From self-centered beliefs like these has come enormous environmental destruction.

Ken and I have read extensively about the lives of Hunter-Gatherers, both contemporary and ancient. I could not imagine a Hunter-Gatherer demanding that we annihilate all the wild flowers so that he could be bee-free.

We have come to another conclusion, too: attitudes like those of the man who hated bees are not necessarily due to inherent human nature. We believe that they come right out of our culture. And, that is what I want to address next.

2. Cultural Beliefs

a. Power, Role, & Invisibility

Culture can be extremely powerful in forming our ideas about how to live in this world. Every culture instills deep-seated beliefs that act as beacons, showing people the way they should organize their lives.

A society that has beliefs that do not work for them because they do not conform to the way the world really works, is in deep trouble.

Most of the time we are not even consciously aware that we have such beliefs. There is an old saying that if you want to know the nature of water, do not ask a fish.  Our culture is all around us, but because we are immersed in it, we do not feel or sense it. “Mother Culture is always whispering in your ear.” (Daniel Quinn, in Ishmael)

b. How Beliefs Arise

How do cultural beliefs arise?  They usually come out of the lifestyles of people.  Let’s look at a few examples:

Hunter-Gatherers place a great deal of importance on the natural cycles of Nature that they see all around them, as well as of their own bodies. They undoubtedly came to these ideas from their keen observation of the monthly waxing and waning of the moon, from the seasonal cycles, and from women’s menstrual cycles.

 

[ Image - Venus of Laussels ]

These HG beliefs go back a long way. The Venus of Laussels is a 22 – 30,000 year old image of a woman sculpted on a rock ledge in Western France. Her sexual features are exaggerated. Her left hand is on her belly.  Is she pregnant?  Perhaps. In her right hand she holds what appears to be a Bison’s horn, but which may also represent the moon in its fourth quarter.  It has fourteen parallel lines incised on it.  Fourteen is of course the midpoint of both the menstrual cycle and the monthly lunar cycle. So, we suspect that even back then Hunter-Gatherer cultures were thinking and organizing their lives in terms of these cycles.

Our own linear culture and its thirst for progress is very different from the ancient H-G traditions which are cyclical – reflecting and celebrating the cycles of Nature.

Ojibway Story

There is a story attributed to the Ojibway Indians of the Great Lakes region.  A young son of the tribe has the responsibility of hunting for game to keep his aged and weak parents alive.  One particularly severe winter, he has trouble finding sufficient game and becomes quite desperate.

One snowy morning, a handsome young chief walks into the young brave’s hunting camp, and challenges him to a wrestling match, promising a special reward if the boy wins.

The boy does win, and the chief instructs him to cut off his head, bury it, and periodically water it.  The boy does so reluctantly, and the next spring, a corn plant grows from that very spot.  The boy is overjoyed.  From now on, he will plant corn and will be able to feed his parents.

This story illustrates how that Indian tribe dealt mythically with their transition from a Hunter Gatherer society to an agricultural

Nature/Nurture Controversy

Let’s consider how we can distinguish between Inherent and Cultural Behavior.  Ken and I used to discuss the more destructive aspects of human behavior with some friends in the field of psychology. One, a psychotherapist, would simply shrug and say, “well, that’s just human nature.” We’d argue instead that it was our culture, “whispering in our ears.” Two other friends, a Developmental Psychologist and an Experimental Psychologist, both had the opposite view: they insisted that human beings are a “tabula rasa” – or a blank slate upon which culture writes behavioral instructions. Here was the old ‘Nature/Nurture controversy’ in living color.

A classical way of distinguishing environmental from inherited factors in human traits is to study these traits in identical twins, who have been reared apart.  Because their biology is the same, any differences can be attributed to their environments. These types of study have consistently shown that behavioral traits in humans are only 60-65% inherited.  This is not surprising.  We have long known that learning plays a large part in our development.

Well, why should all this matter to us?  It matters, because if a behavior is considered “just human nature,” that is, if it is inherent, then there is nothing we can do to change it.  However, if the behavior is produced by a combination of biology and cultural belief, it can be changed.

Recently, Psychologists set up a study in which participants played a game during which they could from time to time decide to be either competitive or cooperative with each other.  The brain activity of the players was monitored with an MRI.  The pleasure centers of their brains consistently lit up whenever they chose to cooperate, but not when they chose to compete.  Is it possible then that mankind is hard-wired to derive pleasure from cooperation?

Then, what are the consequences of our having created a society that emphasizes competition instead?   Just look at the front page of your daily newspaper or listen to the eleven O’clock news. This is something for all of us to think about.

 How Circumstances Changed the Lives of the Kalahari Bushmen

        I have a sad tale to tell.  Elizabeth Marshall Thomas, an Anthropologist, lived with some South African Bushmen in the Kalahari desert for several years and wrote a book about her adventures, called “The Harmless People. ”  In it, she describes their idyllic lives as Hunter-Gatherers in a physically challenging environment.

 

(Image child offering grub) Here’s a photo of Thomas, being offered a special treat by a Bushman child. Can anyone tell what it is?

 

She got to know and like them on an individual basis. But, I must warn you that if you read the last chapter, it will break your hearts.

Ten years later she revisited them. White South African farmers had penetrated into the Kalahari in their perpetual search for more land, and had taken over and fenced off the few water holes that the Bushmen had depended on for their very existence.  This forced the Bushmen to come in from the desert and become virtual serfs to the farmers.  The social fabric of these sweet, gentle people had been almost totally destroyed.  People whom Thomas had known previously had now become wracked with alcoholism, drugs, wife beating, and all the rest of the antisocial behaviors that plague our own society.

Does Our Culture Have Myths?

Does our contemporary, world-wide culture have unexamined beliefs?  Jared Diamond has written a terrific book, entitled ‘Collapse.’ In it,  he examines several civilizations around the world to see which have vanished and which have endured. He concludes that the answer lies in the ways in which each civilization has reacted to environmental challenges.

For example, Diamond tells of the Europeans who settled in Greenland around 1000 A.D. Greenland‘s rivers and surrounding ocean teemed with seals and fish, and the Inuit who lived there were experts at hunting and fishing.

However, the European Greenlanders, when faced with a change to a much colder climate during the Little Ice Age (1300 – 1800 AD) refused to learn how to fish and hunt for seals from their Inuit neighbors, whom they called “Skraelings” Translation – “dirty pagan wretches.”

Instead, the Europeans persisted in continuing to farm and raise cattle despite Greenland’s poor soil and short growing season, and most of them eventually starved to death.

The settlers were in the grips of a cultural belief that we call “there is only one right way, and it is ours.”

(Enter Culture Fairy.  He is a hairy guy, dressed in a tutu & he talks like Gus, the truck driver)

C.F.  “Hey, watcha gettin so upset about?  Nothins wrong with da Woild.  I’ve come to tell ya dat everythings gonna be O.K.”

LJ – “Who are you?  Are you one of those ridiculous fairies?  Look, I resent your breaking in on us like this. We reserved this room for a discussion of the serious situation that mankind faces from the decline in cheap energy and …

C.F.  – “Dat’s exactly what I mean.  Now, don’t getcha knickers all in a twist Girly, will ya!  I’m da Culture Fairy, see.  Ya know, dis is da best of all possible woilds, and we’re gonna come out fine.  Ya know why?  Because da woild was made for Man. Humans are da pinnacle of evolution, see?

LJ  “No, I do not see!  We are using up the finite resources of the Earth, killing off other life forms, and eventually we are going to cause our own extinction if we continue to believe nonsense like that”!

C.F. – “Hey, no problema.  Don’t ya know us humans are exempt from da rules a Nature? We can do stuff that would get any other creature in deep doo doo.  And besides, everybody knows da resources of da Universe are inexhaustible, and if we use up this planet, hey, we can go to Mars.

L.J.  “Now, that is a great idea.   I hear there’s a rocket leaving for Mars shortly.  Why don’t you take it, and establish a colony there?

C.F.  Hey, not a bad idea!  After all, Man was born to rule da Universe, wasn’t he? And in order to do it , he’s gotta conquer Nature, right?   So, Mars, here I come! (he dashes out the door)

The Importance of Cultures’ Alignment with the Earth

As I see it, the main problem is that our culture is not in accord with the way the World is organized.  In fact, it has put us on a collision course with these principles.

If instead, we were to become more grounded in the Earth (if you will excuse the pun), we would gain a deeper understanding of the laws of nature, and the fact that Mankind is not exempt from them.

How Do Myths Come About?

A recent poll showed that 60% of Americans believe that the Sun rotates around the Earth. If you asked these same people whether the Earth is flat or spherical, what do you suppose they would say?  Would they tell you that if you were to drive to New Jersey, you would fall off the end of the Earth?  I don’t think so.

However, if people believe that the World was made for man, and he was made to rule it, then it follows that we are the most important thing in the Universe.  It is possible then that so many Americans believe that the Sun rotates around the Earth because they believe mythologically that we are the center of the Universe and therefore the Earth is also at the center.

Looking at it this way, it seems clear to me that this human-centered view comes right out of the deepest beliefs of our culture.  Regarding another belief, my psychotherapist friend told me some time ago that all humans are competitive, and that is just human nature.

Well, try explaining this idea of competition to a South African Bushman or a Congolese Pygmy.  One of my favorite stories is of some Australian Aborigines who were being taught the rudiments of soccer by European missionaries.  After each side had scored a goal, they all walked off the field together, thinking they had achieved the object of the game.

We’ve just looked at some different cultural beliefs-Now, let’s look at an example of how cultural beliefs can be changed. 

                                              Can We Consciously Change our Beliefs?

 

Some scholars believe that a society cannot consciously change its beliefs – that such beliefs come out of some sort of collective unconscious interacting with millions of bits of information and experiences.

If I believed this, I would not be addressing you right now.  How else do you explain how a hitherto obscure southern black preacher, named Martin Luther King, Jr., changed the face of America back in the 1960s?

Now, instead of extreme racial inequality, we face the end of cheap oil and a changing climate. Both situations have come about because we have extracted and used so much oil However, the end of oil offers a ray of hope. If we can learn to limit CO2 emissions, as well as limit ourselves, that is. How? We think we can do so by not only changing our lifestyle but changing its underlying beliefs as well – such as the cornucopia of endless natural resources and the human right to do whatever we please with the Earth.

Well, so how do we go about changing the beliefs of our culture?

We do not have all the answers but, here’s one thought. We don’t have to throw out our birth religions in order to change our cultural beliefs.

The most holy day of the Jewish calendar is the Day of Atonement.  It is called Yom Kippur.  On that day, you are supposed to fast and to think about the offenses you have committed against others and their offenses against you.  You try to forgive them, and also yourself for your own failures.  Every year, for most of my adult life, I, Ken, would mark that day by fasting and sitting in a Synagogue all day long, chanting prayers in a language with which I was barely acquainted.  Most of the time, quite frankly, I was not spiritually uplifted. I was bored to death.

One Yum Kippur, I could not stand the thought of another dreary day like that, and instead went kayaking all by myself in a lovely little stream.

That turned out to be one of the most unforgettable days of my life.  As I floated down the stream, gazing at the ripples and waves, with the breeze in my face and the sun shining out of a clear blue sky, I never felt more spiritual and in tune with the Universe.

Ever since then, I have gone off by myself on that special day, to fast, and to be alone with my thoughts in some beautiful and sacred natural spot.

One December, Ken and I celebrated the Solstice with some friends.  Two of them, Phil and Sandy Deutchman, suggested that we celebrate it in different way this time, the way Sandy’s Finnish ancestors did over 10,000 years ago. In Finland, people still make candle lanterns of ice to provide light and hope for the return of light in the Spring. During this season, an ancient pagan tradition has it that a goat (the “Joulupukki”) comes out of the woods and gives people presents – if they’ve been good, that is. If they’ve been bad, he gives them a butt!

images

• ice candles

• here are Sandy with a flashlight (the Sun) and physicist Phil – dressed as the Joulupukki – with an orange (the Earth) showing the modern Astronomy behind the ancient Solstice celebration.

 

Other people around the little town in which we live, Sandpoint, Idaho, have adopted various Native American practices, the purpose of which is to re-connect people to the Earth.

Tim Corcoran and Jeannine Tidwell, founders of the Twin Eagles Wilderness School in Sandpoint, have studied with native teachers across the country, including elders from the Lakota tribe. Their school is a center for learning nature awareness and wilderness skills, in order to reconnect children with the Earth. They have also started a local Lakota Inipi, or sweat lodge group.

Randy Russell, who has Choctaw heritage, and is an adopted Lakota, has started a monthly Waneeshpa, or Gathering of Elders.  Randy runs the Soul Lore program, designed to bring back ritual, rights of passage, and other paths to true adulthood for young people.

 Mother Culture Meets Mother Nature

by Lanie Johnson(Rev 3/1/07, 3/6/07

MC         My son, the Culture Fairy had it completely right and you are a lot of hysterics, carrying on with a lot of pointless worry about the world coming to an end.  And, what’s more, you’re wallowing in guilt about the silly idea that humans are responsible for what you think a mess.

LJ         Who are you? I’ve never seen you around Sandpoint.

MC         I don’t ordinarily identify myself with a name, but rather by my wonderful contributions to the world. Some choose to call me “Mother Culture.” I am in charge of designing human society, and if I do say so myself, I have done a splendid job of it.

LJ         I’ve never heard of you. Is there anyone here who can answer her objections?

MN         I can.

LJ         And who are you?

MN         I am Mother Nature. I’m sure you’ve heard of me. I am painfully familiar with Mother Culture’s ideas. Her objections basically target me and my laws.

MC         Of course I object to you. And for many 1000’s of years I have been teaching humans to overcome you. They have learned well, if I do say so myself. Little by little they have come to understand that they are exempt from your annoying and inconvenient laws, and that there is no limit to what they can achieve.

MN         Really? How interesting! You call it progress, but at what price?  Your cleverness has caused a lot of damage to the Earth, and Mankind needs the Earth in order to live. Why don’t you teach them instead to use their cleverness to save the Earth?   They’ve used up most of the Earth’s oil and now the climate is changing –

MC   Now, there you go again, exaggerating a little change in temperature.  My goodness, the culture that brought you leaf blowers, SUVs, and YouTube will easily be able to conquer the Universe and make it ours!

MN  The Universe is a mystery to be celebrated, not solved.  Humans lived in harmony with the Universe for hundreds of thousands of years, and they can learn to do so again, and have more time to experience life.

MC  Ugh!  If they just enjoy life and let everything go, they will never make any progress.  The Culture that brought you Chicken McNuggets, Botox, and American Idol will really get them somewhere even more wonderful.

MN  Well, the way I see it, they are already somewhere.  They are here.  They are surrounded by life in all its many forms.  You could teach them that all other beings are their brothers and sisters, who are to be respected and treasured instead of exploited in your never-ending search for more stuff.

MC  Lower forms of life are not my relatives!  The world was made for Man, and no other life forms have any rights.  It’s pointless to talk to you, Mother Nature.  You are hopelessly old-fashioned.

MN  The Earth is dying, Mother Culture, and I will not let that happen to it.

MC  You couldn’t be more wrong.  Mother Culture will fool you yet.

MN  In that case, I have only one more thing to say to you.

MC  And what is that?

MN  Its not nice to fool Mother Nature (Thunder & exit)

]

 

                                    10. Finale (de Nile) and Bows

Animism, Hunter Gatherers, Paleoanthropology, Programs, The Earth

Climate Scientist Stirs Up A Storm

Aug 13th, 12 / 5 Comments

 

Climate Scientist Stirs Up A Storm

Stranded Polar Bear – Arctic Ice                                    by Ken Fischman, Ph.D.

       James Hansen, the NASA scientist, was among the first persons to bring Global Climate Change to the attention of the general public.  Near the end of his 2009 book, “Storms of My Grandchildren,” he states “Our culture has notions that humans are godlike & can produce miracles.”

Along about this time, the reader may be hoping for a miracle because Hansen has presented such a compelling picture of how and why we have put ourselves in a global fix, that our ability to get out of it seems greatly in doubt.

It is not that we do not understand the nature of the problem. Hansen lays out the evidence in a very convincing fashion. It is not that there are no remedies. Hansen explains clearly what we need to do and has excellent suggestions of how to go about it.

No, the main problem is, does mankind have the courage to face the truth about climate change and the willingness to make adjustments to avoid the consequences he describes?

I think that a few words about why Hansen chose the title, “Storms of My Grandchildren, “ would be appropriate here. Indeed, to understand his impetus for writing the book, it is necessary to know that beyond being a scientist, Hansen cares about what kind of world his grandchildren will face if we do not mend our ways.

In fact, despite sounding like a present day Cassandra a lot of the time, Hansen is an optimist, both about finding ways to slow down global climate change and in his belief that humans are not inherently deniers of painful truths, but are willing to look at the situation with unflinching eyes, and do whatever it takes to save ourselves. Otherwise he would not have bothered to write this book.

If Hansen’s predictions fail at all, it is in assuming that it will be our children and grandchildren, and not ourselves, who will suffer the consequences of climate change. In fact, he lays out a good deal of evidence that many of the predicted climate changes are happening sooner and proceeding faster than most scientists, being basically cautious souls, had anticipated. One of his most important messages to us, although it is in my opinion, one he does not emphasize enough, is that climate change is not something in our future. It is happening now, and it is we, who have to do something about it.

How do we know that Global Climate Change is occurring and that humans are mainly responsible for it? If you really want to know, this is the book for you. It is a fact-based examination of the evidence for GCC, the dangers that it holds for humankind and other life, and a blueprint for what we can do about preventing this incipient catastrophe.

“Storms” is loaded with graphs, tables, and definitions of technical terms. It could be a challenge to the casual reader, although Hansen has gone to great lengths to explain these concepts in plain language.

In order to make his important message as accessible as possible, I have written a comprehensive summary of the book, emphasizing facts and evidence just as Hansen does.

Of course I could not resist adding my own two cents every once in a while. For the purpose of  distinguishing my comments and ideas from those of Hansen, I have italicized mine.

 

Summary and Comments about “STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN”, James Hansen, 2009, Bloomsbury Publishing, London

By Ken Fischman, Ph.D.

 In examining Global Climate Change (GCC), there are certain key quantities to look for and potential tipping points (points at which the buildup of minor changes or incidents reach a level that triggers a more significant change) to watch: (1) continued and faster melting of the West Antarctic & Greenland ice sheets; (2) the % of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere; and (3) an increase in atmospheric methane

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Global CO2 Emissions

Hansen explains that his reasons for concentrating on these aspects are the following sobering facts: (1) Deterioration of ice sheets is leading to an increase in sea level and the number and intensity of storms; (2) an increase in atmospheric CO2 will increase Global Warming (GW) and trigger positive feedbacks (a response to an activity which increases the activity, spiraling out of control); e.g. increases in atmospheric methane also warm the biosphere, which in turn causes release of more methane from continental shelves and arctic tundra, which further warms the biosphere, etc. (Methane, although there is less of it in our atmosphere than there is of CO2, is a 20 – 30 X times stronger warming agent, molecule for molecule.)

In global warming, politics and science are inextricably intertwined. Hansen pulls no punches and plays no favorites, excoriating both Democrats and Republicans  for their unwillingness to deal with it., He first tells of his meetings with Republican VP Cheney and others in the Bush administration, describing his frustration in trying to deal with them.

Keystone XL Pipeline Route

He then goes on to accuse President Obama of failing to combat GCC in several ways: Obama has approved the concept of a tar sands pipeline, although tar sands are an even worse source of GW than are coal and oil.  He has approved new coal plants, despite their spewing large amounts of CO2 into the air. (Hansen makes the point that the consequences of GW are already so advanced, that any new sources of CO2 would be dangerous to the health of the planet).

Obama has also advocated Cap and Trade, a type of law that would put a ceiling on the amount of CO2 that can be emitted. The problem with this approach is that it rewards CO2 pollution, by allowing the polluter to sell the right to pollute to others. This only insures that its level will continue to increase.

Our government is also funneling billions of dollars to energy companies to produce “clean coal” The only problem with that, is there is no such thing. All coal burning releases more CO2 into the atmosphere.

Hansen also says that appointed high government scientists cannot contradict the President. Therefore honest criticism of governmental scientific policies can come only from career scientists or from outside the government. That is one of the reasons Hansen gives for writing this book.

Hansen states boldly that “Our planet … is in imminent danger of crashing.” and  that “It may be necessary to take to the streets to draw attention to [social] injustice.” He also states that “It is our last chance.”  There are warnings like this sprinkled liberally throughout the book, probably to make sure that the readers do not miss them. They will not.

Many environmental organizations urge people to reduce their “Carbon Footprint.” (the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by a particular person, group, etc. due to the consumption of fossil fuels). Hansen says that the problem with individual attempts to reduce Carbon Footprints is that this would lead to a reduction in energy prices, which in turn acts as an economic incentive for others to use more fossil fuels, ultimately putting more CO2 into our atmosphere. For this reason Hansen believes that only government action and international accords can be effective in  reducing atmospheric CO2.

Here is a crucial point to remember. When Hansen wrote his book in 2007, there were 275 Parts Per Million (PPM) of CO2 in our atmosphere.  Now, five years later, in 2012, there are already 295 PPM. Using all of our fossil fuel reserves(2,795 Gigatons) would lead to an additional increase of 30 PPM in the atmosphere, pushing CO2 to well over 300 PPM, a level never before reached.

Global Carbon Emissions

Sea level rise will be one of the most devastating effects of climate change. Hansen and others have calculated that further ice sheet disintegration would lead to acceleration of changes that will take place, not in a hundred years, but within decades, and a rise in sea level of about 80 M (250 ft) is possible. One billion people would be effected.  A sea level rise of even 1 – 2 M would adversely effect hundreds of millions of people. Yet, loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet alone would result in a rise of 6 -7 M in sea level. He states unequivocally that “Ice sheet collapse and a sea level rise of several meters is a dead certainty.”

For comparison purposes, 14,000 yrs ago, at the start of the Holocene (the present geological epoch), the sea level changed 1 M (3.2 ft.) in 20 – 25 years, making a considerable change in the planet’s ecosystems

Hansen then tackles the effect of GCC on storms: He tells us that they will certainly be more powerful (and perhaps more frequent) in this century. Storms like tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes, and typhoons will become more common and powerful. (a 10% increase in wind speed increases damage by 33%).  The region subject to tropical storms almost surely will expand (e.g. until Catarina hit S.E. Brazil in 2004, no cyclone had ever been recorded there). There will be more destructive mid-latitudes Frontal Cyclones.  The intensity of superstorms (like “The Perfect Storm” that hit New England in 1991) will increase.

Scientists studying Ice Sheet Disintegration have warned that due to their rapid melting and destruction, there will be a rapid sea rise within generations i.e. within the lifetimes of our grandchildren & perhaps our children.

Increases of only 1 M in sea level, together with more powerful storms, will have horrendous consequences. e.g. they would hit 1-2 magnitudes (each magnitude is a 10-fold change) higher population than Hurricane Katrina, which struck New Orleans in 2005.

 It is not a question of whether, but of when. As I read this, the effects of the 2012 “derecho” superstorm (a widespread, long-lived, straight-line windstorm that is associated with a fast-moving band of severe thunderstorms), were still being assessed. It killed at least two dozen people and left millions in the Mid Atlantic states without electricity for up to a week during a record breaking heat wave (114° F in Washington, D.C.).

Some changes caused by GCC have already taken place faster than were anticipated: (1) It has caused the disappearance of Arctic sea ice in the summer, and with it, a rise in sea level and ocean temperatures; (2) It has brought about the expansion of subtropical climate to more northern latitudes, bringing a change in flora and fauna e.g. cases of Nile Fever, a viral disease in which mosquitoes, formerly found only in the tropics, are the vectors (or carriers) were reported in Southwest Idaho in July, 2012; (3) It is causing melting of mountain glaciers all over the world. This loss of glaciers will bring about a water crisis for  millions of people dependant on them for their drinking and irrigation water. Not far from my home in Northern Idaho, the glaciers of the eponymously named Glacier National Park are disappearing.

Hansen has an additional warning about methane. If methane hydrates (The form in which most methane is sequestered in ice, tundra, and along the Continental Shelves) are released in large quantities, these changes will accelerate. This  may already be occurring. _Igor Semiletov of the International Arctic research Center has reported finding large holes in Arctic ice in the Spring of 2012, through which escaping methane was detected .

We may have as much methane hydrate as that which drove the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), an event which occurred 54 million years ago and increased global temperatures 5 – 9 °C. (that amounts to about to 16° F, an increase I believe to be incompatible with life, at least as we know it). If ocean circulation changes so that warm Pacific currents sink, releasing those methane hydrates from the Continental Shelves, we have no known way to reverse the process.

Some climate skeptics insist that the predicted temperature changes in the Earth’s climate can cause little damage. In retort, Hansen points out that on the contrary, the Little Ice Age (1600 – 1850) was caused by a decrease of only ½ degree Celsius.

Hansen goes on to point out that this increase in methane is also one of three probable Ratcheting Effects (effects that trigger other similar and more powerful ones). These are as previously mentioned: (1) Intensification of storms; (2) Disintegration of ice sheets; and (3) Further melting of methane hydrates.

He anticipates that there will also be amplifying or positive feedbacks (cf.) e.g. If ice and snow melt, the Earth absorbs more sunlight, which, in turn, warms the Earth so that more ice and snow melt, etc. etc. What such feedbacks lead to is not only increase in amount, but also acceleration of the rate of increase. Increases in methane and nitrogen oxides produce such amplifications.

Some critics of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the main scientific body studying GCC, fault it for relying too much on computer modeling. These critics will find an unexpected ally in Dr. Hansen. In his opinion, Global Climate Change Models are not as accurate as Paleoclimate data. e.g. they failed to predict the recent Arctic sea ice loss. Why? The Earth is too complex a system to anticipate & include all relevant factors. Nevertheless, the predictive abilities of climate  science are pretty good. For example, forecasts of the temporary cooling effect of Mt. Pinatubo’s (Philippines) eruption in 1991 on world climate turned out to be accurate.

Fortunately, Hansen points out, we do not have to guess about these complex factors. We have records of past climate changes in glacial ice cores, as well as mountaintop  and antarctic snow, that we can compare with present and anticipated climate alterations. These findings give scientists a pretty good idea of what conditions to expect in the future, under similar circumstances.

The IPCC comes in for additional criticism from Hansen despite their extensive research and detailed reports.  He believes that they do not give sufficient warning of the dire consequences of GCC.  He says that the IPCC reports minimize the dangers of the likely sea level rise, and that their estimate of the highest level of GW is not high enough. He also faults them for not presenting scenarios and strategies to avert the dangers that would be brought on by continuation of present climate policies.

Hansen points out that one of our biggest problems in convincing people of the reality of GCC is one of perception. The changes brought about by Global Warming so far, are usually much less than the daily fluctuations in weather with which people are familiar.

Global Temperature Index

 

 

 

It is instead the frequency, persistence, and location of these perturbations that will make them so dangerous. Mankind and the rest of life can survive occasional big storms, heat waves, droughts, etc. but, what will happen when they become the norm instead of anomalies?

Among the questions that scientists have not yet been able to solve are the effects of Aerosols (fine particles in the air, e.g. soot) on the climate.  Aerosols cause cooling, and this can at least partially offset effects of Global Warming. The main problem is that we cannot measure future amounts of aerosols in the atmosphere because many of these are man-made and others come from unanticipated natural causes (cf. the eruption of Mount Pinatubo). So, aerosols may be masking Global Warming, but scientists have difficulties in measuring the extent of their effects.

Some engineers have actually advocated deliberately injecting aerosols into the atmosphere to offset effects of climate change. There would be one big difficulty in doing this. Aerosols are health hazards, causing particulate pollution.

Next, Hansen tackles the question of what changes GCC is causing at the present time. He lists a number of those that can readily be measured: (1) Melting of mountain glaciers; (2) Shifting climate zones; (3 Increasing fires & flooding; (4) Loss of Arctic sea ice; (5) Loss of coral reefs (& biodiversity); (6) Shrinking of Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets;  (7) Rising sea level; and (8) Extinctions.

One of the most important things that a scientist can do, to show that his/her studies or theories are correct, is to use them to make accurate predictions. Being able to do so, solidifies the previous findings. Hansen does this, and it is eye opening. Storms was written in 2007, and in it Hansen states that as oceans move into a positive El Nino phase in 2009, expect global temperature increase in the next few years.

March 2012 State Temperatures

2009 turned out to be the 2nd hottest year on record,  2010 was the hottest year on record. (2012 is now on track to surpass both of these years).

Even scientists have feelings, and occasionally they are willing to talk about them. Hansen tells a story of driving to yet another meeting, where he was desperately trying to convince people of the reality and dangers of GCC, when he hit a deer unexpectedly dashing on to the highway. Of course, most people would be upset by such an accident, but Hansen started weeping uncontrollably. He realized only later that he was not only crying for the deer, but for the planet.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Global Temperature Change 1881 -2009

There is no question in the minds of scientists what the main factor is that is driving climate change. It is CO2 Emissions. There is a global natural carbon cycle, involving plants and animals. This cycle has now been altered by humans, mostly through burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Among the worrisome things about this change is that human driven emissions increased from 2003 – 2008 by 3.5%, and an industrially booming China has passed the USA as the chief CO2 emitter.

In another example of a positive or amplifying feedback, Global Warming will increase drought & forest fires in the Amazon Forest and turn it into a large source of CO2 emissions. If we continue our business as usual scenario, this will result in increasing these amplifying feedbacks, and they may spin out of control.

A sobering story that Hansen tells is about a time that he talked on TV with the famed interviewer Larry King.  When he told King that some of the effects of GCC will appear in the next 50 years, King replied that “Nobody cares about 50 years from now.”

King was telling the bitter truth. Humans seem to be programmed by evolution to react to immediate dangers, and ignore future ones. Perhaps this enables us to concentrate our energies and focus on the task at hand. (see Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse) This tendency however, to ignore future dangers is particularly unfortunate with reference to GCC because by the time some of these predictions come true years from now, we will probably have reached the point of no return. We will have no good solution to them.

The IPCC typically presents low and high estimates of their predictions. What will happen to life on earth if temperatures hit the high end of the IPCC’s predictions, around 8° C ?   The last time our planet’s temperature was 2 – 3 ° C  higher than now was the Middle Pliocene, 3 million yrs ago. The sea level was 25 M (80 ft) higher and Florida and many other areas were under water. One billion people now live in those formerly under-water areas. Anyone want to buy some seaside property?

Hansen tells us that paleontologists have identified five time periods in the Earth’s history when mass extinctions took place. The 5th Extinction was called the End Permian Event, and it happened 251 million yrs ago. 90 % of all species became extinct and nearly all life was wiped out. The causes of the Permian Extinction were acidification and warming of the seas, the same processes that are now occurring. The 6th Extinction is now under way. It is man-made, and the current extinction rate is 100X the natural rate.

As Hansen previously stated, one of the best ways of understanding the climate changes awaiting us is to look for and examine the effects of similar events that have already occurred. The Paleo Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) occurred about 56 million yrs. ago, at the boundary of the Paleocene & Eocene epochs. The changes then were comparable to the anticipated ones now, but they took place over millennia, not in less than 100 years. Will we and the rest of life be able to accommodate to such large changes, taking place at least ten times faster? Recovery from PETM took about 100,000 yrs.

         The present manmade emissions of CO2 when compared with similar but natural phenomena – are 10,000X greater.(e.g. a man strolling thru a park at 2 MPH compared with the Space Shuttle leaving Earth at 17,500 MPH). Also, humans are simultaneously stressing the planet in other ways – overharvesting of fisheries, deforestation, taking over much of the planet for our livestock (Stephen Augustine, Spokesman for Sandpoint Vegetarians, informed me that we and our animals and plants now occupy 95 % of the arable land on earth!). Our population is continuing to increase.

Doctor Hansen, along with author and environmentalist Bill McKibben, head of 350.org, have said that we should have a ceiling of 350 parts/million (PPM) for CO2 emissions. Why should the target be 350 PPM when CO2 concentration in the earth’s atmosphere is already high?

The reasons Hansen gives are compelling. Climate change events are already exceeding safe levels and we may not be able to role back or even stabilize these levels. For one thing, Arctic sea ice is already declining at a rate beyond scientists’ expectations.  He also points out that most mountain glaciers will disappear within the next 50 yrs, and as previously stated, these glaciers are a source of water for millions of people. Furthermore, the Greenland & West Antarctic ice sheets are now losing 100 cubic Kms per year.

(Just to give you an idea of the magnitude of this loss, it is 5X the volume of the Great Salt Lake in Utah, and we do not know how to reduce or stop it,  Two pieces of the Greenland Glacier, one the size of Manhattan Island and the other twice that size, have broken off within the last few months).

Ice Island Breaks Away

         The bad news continues. Subtropical regions are now expanding northward at a rate of 4 degrees of latitude/yr. (that is 280 miles), changing the ecosystems (cf. the spread of Nile virus into Idaho, an unprecedented northward sweep of a hitherto tropical disease). Dry regions are expanding in the southern US, Australia, and the Mediterranean region. Fire frequency and area in the southwestern US have expanded 300% in the past several decades.

Colorado Springs Wildfires

 

 

 

350 homes were destroyed in Colorado Springs a month ago and many parts of Texas are burning up as I am writing this in the summer of 2012. Lakes Powell & Meade are inexorably shrinking (they are now half full). Where will drinking and irrigation water for large parts of the Southwest and Southern California come from in the near future? Dr. Hansen has recently published a paperthat directly attributes the Texas heat wave last year, the Russian heat wave of 2010, and the European heat wave of 2003 to GCC. 

The scientific culture is a hypercritical one. Even fledgeling researchers quickly learn that fellow scientists will look for things in their publications that can be challenged. One of the more consistent criticisms of climate science publications has been that no single catastrophic event can be attributed to GCC because such events have also occurred at other times and places. For example hurricanes as powerful as Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, have occurred previously. Therefore climatologists look for trends and repetition of these events. For example, an increase in atmospheric CO2 in a single year or in one month’s temperature would not be considered significant. However Hansen, and other climate scientists have reported such alarming trends as consistent yearly increases in CO2 and month after month and year after year of record high temperatures. Such evidence is extremely impressive. To ignore its implications would fly in the face of critical thinking and common sense.

Coral reefs are being highly stressed. They contain a majority of marine organisms and are a major source of our planet’s biodiversity. This stress is caused by ocean warming and acidification, both due to increased CO2 concentrations in the water.

Hansen puts special stress on the melting of Arctic ice. The bottom fell out in 2007. As stated previously, the ice is melting much faster than climate models predicted. It is now at the point that models predicted for 2050, 38 years sooner than expected. There are two factors at work here: (a) the processes themselves, and; (b) the rates at which the processes occur. We know what is happening with great certainty but when they will occur depends on future events, which cannot always be known until they happen e.g. CO2 amounts that we put into the atmosphere.

Back on the human side of all this bad news, Hansen tells of his many frustrating encounters with US government agencies and highly placed individuals, like Vice President Cheney. He accuses these officials of trying to cover up their unwillingness to do much about climate change, and still claiming that they are in favor of limiting CO2 emissions. He calls this tactic “Greenwash” ( a form of “hogwash”?), and gives various examples of it:

  1. Allowing construction of new coal-fired power plants
  2. Allowing construction of coal to oil conversion plants.
  3. Allowing production and use of unconventional fuels, like tar sands.
  4. Leasing public lands and remote areas for oil and gas exploration
  5. Allowing Hydraulic Fracturing.
  6. Allowing Mountain Top Removal and Long Wall Coal Mining.
  7. To this list, I would add the possible approval of the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline from Canada to Port Arthur and Houston, Texas, a decision that would come up in early 2013. ( By the way, if these tar sands were destined for domestic consumption as claimed, why not terminate the pipeline in Oklahoma (cf.), where there is plenty of oil refining capacity. In reality, this fuel is destined for overseas markets, thus fattening the pocketbooks of energy companies, but doing little or nothing  to make the US  energy self-sufficient). The key to this decision is the question as to whether the State Department will consider the effects of GCC in their evaluation. Duh!

Next, Hansen tackles the question of how can fossil fuels be reduced and phased out.  He believes that there are two efficient tools for accomplishing this crucial task. One, would be the use of energy efficiencies, prodded by increasing taxes on fossil fuels. The second is through the use of renewable energies with the use of tax incentives and requiring utilities to use renewable energy.

Perhaps the greatest impediment to reducing CO2 emissions is the increasing industrialization of the two most populous countries in the world, China and India. Yet, Hansen sees a ray of hope in this part of the world because both these countries would suffer from Global Climate Change:

  1. There would be over 100 million Bangladeshi refugees because their homelands would be under water. And, where would these refugees go, if not to India?
  2. In addition, 100 million Indians themselves live near the sea, and would be subject to storms and floods.
  3. Finally, three million Chinese live within the 25 M zone (c f.), and would also be flooded out.

Next, Hansen tackles some of what he considers bogus ideas that governments and environmental organizations have suggested for slowing down or alleviating GCC One is carbon capture at coal power plants. He states that doing this would increase costs 25%. It would cost trillions of dollars to retrofit Indian and Chinese plants. He states bluntly that this will never happen, and I believe him.

Another panacea proffered is  so-called carbon offsets, such as planting trees.  Hansen compares offsets to Medieval Indulgences, in that they allow polluters to continue to pollute. This is of course reminiscent of the problems inherent in Cap and Trade, which were discussed earlier in the book. His conclusion is that there is no free lunch. If we are going to stop or even slow down GCC, we cannot allow more CO2 to enter our atmosphere.

Winding up his evaluation of suggested methods for combating CO2 emissions, Hansen again compares Cap and Trade with Fee and Dividend: In Cap and Trade, a ceiling would be placed on the annual emission of CO2 in various industries, which would decrease in future years. Any company that was able to operate below its assigned emissions, could sell the rights to the unused emissions to another company. In Fee and Dividend, all CO2 emitting entities would be charged a fee for doing so, and the fee would be reimbursed to the citizens on an equal basis, perhaps as a tax reduction, to be used as the citizen wishes.

Hansen says that Cap and Trade would be a disaster for the planet because it is extremely complex, can be manipulated to keep pollution high, allows Congress to do whatever it wants with the money, and enables Wall Street to speculate with it, making a great deal of money for them with little effect on CO2 emissions.

On the other hand, Fee and Dividend is straight forward, does not allow the government to play with the money, and puts it right back in the citizen’s hands to do with as they please. They can use it to reduce their energy costs or to take a vacation in Tahiti. It is their money and their choice. He believes that it will definitely reduce CO2 emissions.

In 2008, British Columbia adopted a Fee and Dividend plan, using a carbon tax and pairing it with an equal reduction in payroll taxes. Five months later, it was in place and working. The effect has been a 4.5 % reduction of CO2 emissions in B.C. 

Hansen ends with the following conclusions:  (1) Government agencies accept as a god-given fact that we will burn all fossil fuels; (2) The biggest problem for democracy and the safety of our planet is the role of lobbies and flood of corporate money and influence on government; (3) Our culture has notions that humans are godlike & can produce miracles I call this belief technophilia. It is the contemporary version of a belief in miracles, which I referred to in the first paragraph of this Summary.

Hansen concludes his assessment by saying that if we destroy our planet, we destroy ourselves. What should we do? Keep atmospheric CO2 below 350 PPM. For a brighter future, we must move beyond fossil fuels and energy, and reduce human population.

Hansen’s final recommendations are (i.e. showing the radicalization of a scientist):

1. We must draw a line in the sand – no new coal plants.

2. “I am now studying Gandhi’s concepts of civil resistance.”

 

Some questions for the reader to consider:

• Do scientists have an obligation to become politically involved?

• Does Obama support control of Climate Change?

• What actions should we take? Change light bulbs or adopt civil disobedience?

• What do you think we should do about Climate Change contrarians & deniers? Hint: Iran just sentenced to death three bank officers involved in a two billion dollar fraud scheme. Perhaps Iran is not all bad. Think of what a salutary effect a similar policy on the part of this country would have on Wall Street attitudes .

 

 What would you ask Obama to do?

         •Disapprove the XL Pipeline?

         •Freeze coal extraction?

         •No new coal plants?

         •Reinstall Carter’s solar panels?

 

       I personally like the idea of Obama asking the National Academy of Sciences for a report on what our present climate change policies are doing, and what government policies on climate change should be in the future. This might create a ground swell for changing those present government policies.

Should environmentalists support Permitting of 4th Generation (or Fast-Reactor) Nuclear Plants? Just what is a 4th generation nuclear plant? I recently listened to a full hour discussion on NPR by nuclear experts about how to make nuclear power plants safer, and this topic was never mentioned. Is it merely a pipe dream?

         We have had: Three-Mile Island, Chernoble, and now, after the publication of Hansen’s book, Fukushima. Would Hansen still champion Phase IV Nuclear Fission plants? Did he convince you?

How would you respond to a person who says that he just had the coldest winter in many years in his town and therefore Global Warming is bunk?

As I am writing this post and trying to finish it, new reports on recent dire effects of GCC seem to be coming in daily. The latest one pinpoints July 2012 as the hottest month in the US since they started keeping such records 117 years ago. Is anybody out there listening?

Breaking News, climate change, News, The Earth

The Bear Hunter

Oct 14th, 11 / 0 Comments

 

THE BEAR HUNTER

  by Ken Fischman                                          

Published in The Sandpoint Reader, 1/31/05

The phone rings in a plush office of a high rise Boise office building. An elegantly dressed, middle aged man, answers it at his desk. He hears a woman's, voice. “It is now 0900 hours on the ninth of September, year 2005. Your Super Remote Teletronic Animal Harvesting Device has made a bear-kill at 0700 hours of this day in sector B345 of the Payette National Forest. Please refer to your electronic map for the best route to this location".

The man is delighted. This hunting season he will get his trophy head. He cancels his appointments for the rest of day and heads home, where he exchanges his vintage red MG sports car for his $45,000 Mitsubishi pickup, which is carrying a John Deer Special remote-control all-terrain vehicle in its bed. He hastily loads it with a sealed package containing, among other things, a canvas bag, rope, and small chain saw, and heads north on Rt. 55.

During the two hour ride he reminisces about the vicissitudes of the old days of bear hunting, when he used bait and dogs, and the failed campaign by those "lunatic animal lovers" to infringe on the rights of hunters to hunt bears in the most efficient manner possible. He chuckles, and thinks “You cannot stop progress", He muses further on how primitive man used to hunt huge cave bears with only spears and pit traps, and how physically  exhausting and dangerous it must have been.

         What a great improvement these new high tech methods over the 1990s hunting methods.  Now the odds are more on our side, and there is no need to get up at 5:30 AM, bundle up, trudge into the mountains, get cold, wet, dirty, and then sometimes not even get a bear.

         In his mind, he goes over the new high tech hunting methods, such as remote sensing devices, laser-aimed, computer-controlled weapons, and satellite tracking game locators that can be set for any kind of animal.  He then remembers with chagrin that the previous model he had sometimes misidentified the game animal. One time he took off a whole day to go up there, expecting to harvest an elk, and instead found a cow! However, the dealer had assured him that glitch in the harvesting software had been.

corrected in the new model that he had recently purchased. It had better be. He had paid a mint for it!

He arrives at the trail head, and still in his business suit, he unloads the ATV, places the package in it, and climbs in. He turns on the computer, punches some keys, and away he goes, automatically being driven to his "kill". The ATV's computer ascertains the shortest way to the kill and maneuvers expertly, using its universally jointed, independently suspended wheels to get over and around all obstacles. The man sits, back, mixes himself a drink, and turns on the TV. Not finding anything interesting, he switches it off and his mind turns to how he and his wife had argued about this new hunting device.

         “I really will never understand that woman, how she can prefer to hike into the forest, insisting that she enjoys 'experiencing nature first hand." Several times she had actually tried to entice him to go with her! No way. He did not want an that effort and discomfort. He saw with distaste the way she had to bundle up with boots, gloves, down coat, and her silly red wool beret.

The ATV arrives at a shallow but steep ravine, that it cannot negotiate and cannot find a good route around due to heavy alder thickets. The ATV's computer informs him of this, and that the kill is located only thirty feet away. "Damn", he thinks, "I should have spent the extra money and gotten the model with tree-cutter capacity." He curses, because it has become obviously windy and colder. He gets out, unzips the packet, pulls out and puts on Mylar coveralls. He starts to carry the canvas bag and chainsaw down into the ravine. His patent leather shoes slip on the scree, and he tumbles to the bottomtwisting his knee and hitting his head on a rock.

         He regains consciousness, minutes or perhaps hours later, finding himself at the bottom of the ravine and in a full-scale blizzard. He cannot see more than a few feet ahead. He realizes that his knee is hurt badly enough so that he cannot walk, and he feels panicky. He tries to calm himself but soon begins to drop into hypothermia.  He thinks “I’ve got to get back in the ATV, and order it to get me back to the trail head. I can also radio for assistance, and the satellite tracker will guide the Medic copter to me." As he drags himself laboriously over the lip of the ravine, he lifts his head and sees a beautiful fox standing in the snow, looking at him. He feels a strange kinship with it, but the fox just flicks its tail and calmly trots into the storm. "Wait, don't go," the bear hunter mumbles.

He looks ahead and dimly perceives a snow-covered form lying on the ground ahead of him. "Damn" he says. "It's the bear. I climbed up the wrong side of the ravine!" He reaches out to the form and grasps something that comes away in his hand. He looks at it. It is a red beret.

He lapses into unconsciousness again. The storm grows in intensity. It will be very cold that coming night on the mountain, just as it has been for millennia
 

 

Hunter Gatherers, stories, The Earth, wilderness awareness

Summary of Intergovernmental Panel Report On Climate Change

Aug 17th, 11 / 0 Comments

 

 

 

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CRISIS WE FACE

or

 THE LITTLE MEN IN WHITE COATS ARE HERE AGAIN

 

By Ken Fischman, Ph.D.

            Some of you are old enough to remember those 1950s science fiction movies. You know, the ones that begin with astronomers finding a giant asteroid, heading straight for the Earth, sure to blow us to smithereens.

A crisis meeting is called of all the earth’s leaders, at which anxious little men in white coats lay out the Doomsday scenario. They warn us that if we do not come together and take emergency steps, our planet will surely be destroyed.

Of course, after a lot of bickering, our leaders do come to their senses. We all cooperate in a sort of Manhattan Project. Mankind’s ingenuity finds a way to destroy the intruding asteroid, and our annihilation is avoided. Whew! Close call!

Well, I kind of felt like those theater audiences when I first read the 1oo page Summary of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – that’s a mouthful) 2007 4th Assessment on Climate Change.

I read and reread it. I went back to the voluminous original Report and read that. You may well wonder why I went to so much trouble. Well, you see, I was sure that I had misread or misinterpreted the Report.  Perhaps I had misplaced some decimal points or made mistakes in transposing from degrees Centigrade (which all scientists use) to Fahrenheit (which almost all Americans use) and/or from Meters to Feet (ditto).

Alas, I could not find any big errors. In thirty years as a scientific researcher I had never read a document as sobering as this one.  The little men in white coats were standing there again, telling us that we are doomed unless we take immediate, concerted action.

However, this is not a movie, not even a Grade B one. This is real life, and not enough people are listening. In fact, many people, mostly Americans, are desperately trying to ignore this danger. An entire multibillion-dollar industry of Climate Denial has sprouted, fueled by deep-pocketed energy corporations, who have much to lose if we slow CO2 emissions, and supported by people who do not want to face having to change their life styles.

In the ensuing four years since this report came out, the news has only gotten worse and the deniers more stubborn in their desperate need to ignore reality.

Next year another IPCC Report is due. I can tell you now, based on many publications I have read in the interim, that the news will be worse, showing that many of the predicted changes have already begun, and are proceeding at a rate faster than anticipated by our scientists.

Our leading climate scientist, James Hansen has written an eye opening book, summarized elsewhere on this web site, explaining the physics, biology, and politics of Climate Change.

CO2 emissions are continuing to climb, ice sheets are breaking off, methane is escaping from melting permafrost, heat wave records are tumbling all over the earth, our forests and plains are burning, and droughts are getting worse and more widespread. Did I leave anything out?  Sure I did, out of a concern not to overwhelm you – too much.

Are there any adults out there, who learned from their parents and elders that the only way to overcome adversity is to face it and surmount it? If you are among these few grownups, I urge you to read my ten-page summary of the last IPCC Assessment, and then if the spirit moves you and if you care about what happens to your children and grandchildren, take action. What will happen will not be pretty unless we get our act together fast. The sands of time are running out. A good place to start would be the 350.org website.

————————————————————————————————————————————————–

INTERGOVERNMENT PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE – 4th ASSESSMENT

         SYNTHESIS REPORT – November 16, 2007

[Summary by K. Fischman, Ph.D., Jan 21. 2008)]

(For treatment of Uncertainty & other notes, see Addendum on last page)

A. Observed Changes:

1.  Warming of climate – unequivocal – now seen in increase of air & ocean temperatures, melting of snow & ice, sea level rise.

2.  Northern Hemisphere temperatures – very likely higher than in last 500 yrs., & likely higher than in past 1,300 yrs.

3.  Many natural systems are being affected, particularly by temperature increases.

4.  Changes in Arctic & Antarctic systems – high confidence.

5.  Increased runoff & earlier Spring runoff – high confidence.

6.  Timing of Spring events is changing, & there is poleward & higher elevation shift in Plant & Animal ranges – very high confidence.

B.  Causes of Changes:

1.  Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are due to human activities, & have increased since pre-industrial times. They have increased 70% since 1970.

2.  Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide ( CO2 ), methane ( CH4), & nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly since 1750 as a result of  human activities.  They far exceed pre-industrial values & earlier ones. This was determined by analysis of ice cores, spanning 650,000 yrs.  The increase is primarily caused by fossil fuel use.

(a) CH4 has increased through agriculture & fossil fuel use.

(b) N2O has increased through agriculture.

3.  Increase in global temperature – very likely caused by anthropogenic (human-caused) activities (otherwise, solar & volcanic activities would actually have cooled the planet over the past 50 yrs.)

4.  Discernable human activities have resulted in other climate changes.

(a) Sea level rise – very likely.

(b) Wind patterns, storm tracks, hot nights & days, heat waves, droughts, & heavy precipitation.

5.  Significant warming has been global  (It is very unlikely that it is caused by natural variability).

C.  Projected Climate Change & its Impacts:

1.  There is high agreement & much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies, Global GHG emissions will continue to increase over the next few decades.                           

2.  Predicted global GHG emissions will grow by 25 -90% CO2-eq (CO2 equivalents) between  2000 – 2030 (23 yrs from now).

3.  Climate changes in the 21st century (next 93 yrs.) are very likely to be larger than during the 20th century.

4.  Global temperature will increase 0.8°F in the next 2 decades [almost a  1°F increase!].

D.  Scenarios for GHG Emissions from 2000 – 2100 (in absence of enactment of climate policies)

1. Projected increased global surface warming & sea level rise in next 100 yrs:

(a) Best case –  3.8 °F increase & 6.9 – 14.6 ft. rise.

(b) Worst case –   5.9 °F increase & 10.0 – 22.ft. rise

[this does not include the full effects of Greenland & Antarctic ice sheet flow, which has increased dramatically in the last 4 yrs.)

(c) Worst case 13.6 °F (highest possible temperature)

[Would such a temperature be incompatible with most life?]

E.  Regional Scale Changes:

1.  Warming will be greatest over land & at most northern latitudes.  This will result in contraction of snow cover, increase in thaw depth, & decrease in sea ice (It could disappear entirely in late summer).

2.  There will be hot extremes, e.g. heat waves , heavy precipitation – very likely.

3.  Tropical cyclone (Hurricane) intensity will increase.  (There is less confidence that the #s of such events will increase).

4.  There will be a poleward shift of extra-tropical storm tracks, with changes in wind, precipitation, & temperature patterns.

5.  Precipitation:

(a) increase in high northern latitudes –  very likely

(b) decrease in most subtropical lands  –  likely

6.  River runoff & water availability will increase in the higher latitudes, & will decrease in some dry regions of mid-latitudes & tropics.  Many semiarid regions (e.g. Mediterranean, Western USA, southern Africa, & NE Brazil) will suffer decreases in water resources – high confidence.

F.  Timing & Magnitude of Impacts (as well as amounts & rates of climate change):

1. (a) 30 % of species are at risk of extinction         (best case)

(b) Significant worldwide extinctions (worst case)

2. Many other serious consequences associated with global temperature change –  e.g.

•  cereal productivity in low latitudes will decrease.

•  coastal flooding

•  malnutrition

(high confidence for all of these)

G.  Projected Regional Impacts (with very high confidence or high confidence):

1.  Africa – 50 % decrease in rain-fed agriculture, & 5 – 8% increase of arid land.

2.  Asia – decrease in freshwater availability, & flooding in mega delta regions. [e.g. Bangladesh]

3.  Australia – significant biodiversity loss in the Great Barrier Reef & the Queensland Wet Tropics. Sea level rise will exacerbate the effects of coastal development & population growth. Agriculture & forestry are expected to decline.

4.  Europe – increased risk of flash floods, coastal flooding, & erosion.  Mountains – extensive species losses (up to 60%), glacier retreat, & reduced snow cover (Winter tourism will decrease).  South Europe – is expected to experience high temperatures, drought, & decrease in crop production, as well as heat waves & wildfires.

5.  Latin America – replacement of: tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia, & semiarid vegetation by arid-land vegetation.  There is risk of significant biodiversity loss & species extinction. Crops & livestock are projected to decrease in productivity, hunger increase, & water availability decrease.

6.  North America – Western mountain regions expected to experience decrease in snow pack, increase in winter flooding, & reduced summer flows. Rain-fed yields in agriculture will increase 5 – 20%.  Cities in some areas would have increases in #, intensity, & duration of heat waves..  Coastal communities & habitats would be stressed.

7.  Polar Regions – Glaciers, ice sheets, & sea ice will decrease in thickness & extent. Detrimental stresses on migratory birds, mammals, & predators.  Detrimental impacts on traditional indigenous life. Decrease in climate barriers, resulting in increase of invasive species.

8.  Small Islands – Their existence threatened by: inundation, storm surge, & erosion. Coral bleaching. Water resources decrease, & invasion of non- native species increase.

H.  Likely Effected By Climate Change:

1.  Ecosystems

(a) Tundra, boreal forests, & mountains.

(b) Mediterranean region – rainfall decrease, resulting in decrease of tropical rain forests.

(c) Coastal regions – Mangroves & salt marshes impacted.

(d) Coral Reefs – at high risk.

2.  Water resources – dry regions in mid-latitudes, dry tropics, & areas that are dependant on snow & ice melt.

3.  Low-latitude agriculture – decrease in water availability.

4.  Low-lying coastal regions impacted by rise in sea level & extreme weather.

5.  Human health – populations with low adaptive capacity impacted.

6.  Regions:

(a) Arctic – projected high rates of warming.

(b) Africa – low adaptive capacity.

(c) Small islands – sea rise & warming.

(d) Asian & African mega delta regions – sea levels, storm surges, & river flooding [what will happen to New Orleans, Miami, etc. in North America?]

I.  Ocean Acidification:

1. Anthropogenic CO2 uptake – since 1750 [start of industrial age] has led to oceans becoming more acidic.

2. Projections – Decrease in global ocean pH of between 0.14 – 0.35 by the 21st century. [This is a large change because pH is a log, not an arithmetic function]

3. Already observed – Damage to marine, shell-forming organisms, including coral.

J.  Frequencies & Intensities of Extreme Weather & Sea Level [Rise] Projected to Increase:

1.  Temperature rise is virtually certain:

(a) Agriculture – Increased yields in colder environments, decreased yields in warmer ones, & insect outbreaks.

(b) Water sources – detrimental to those regions which rely on snow melt for water supply.

(c) Reduced human mortality due to decreased cold exposure.

(d) Reduced demand for heating, but increased demand for cooling. Decrease in air quality in cities, but reduced disruption of traffic in the winter.

2.  Very Likely Outcomes:

(a) Warm spells & heat waves.

(b) Reduced agricultural yield in warmer regions, & increase in wildfires.

(c) Water quality – water demands increase, & quality decreases, more algal blooms.

(d) Heat-related mortality –especially in the young, aged, chronically sick, & the socially isolated.

(e) Quality of life –decrease in warm regions, especially among the very elderly, very young, & the poor.

3.  Very Likely Outcomes – In areas where heavy precipitation occurs, results in:

(a) Agriculture – crop damage, soil erosion, & water logging of soils.

(b) Water resources – contamination, but water scarcity may be relieved.

(c) Human health – deaths, injuries, & diseases increase.

(d) Society – Disruption of settlements, commerce, infrastructure, & loss of property.

4. Drought increases:

(a) Agriculture – degradation, decreased yields, livestock deaths, & increased wildfires.

(b) Water – stress.

(c) Health – Food & water shortages, also water – & food-borne diseases.

(d) Society – Reduced hydroelectric power & increased population migrations.

5. Tropical Cyclone Activity Increases:

(a) Agriculture – crop & coral reef damage

(b) Water – power outages, causing public water supply disruption.

(c) Health – deaths, injuries, disease, & post-traumatic stress disorder.

(d) Society – more pressure for population migrations.

6. High sea level:

(a) Agriculture – damaged by salinization.

(b) Decreased fresh water availability.

(c) Health – deaths & injuries increase.

(d) Social – infrastructure damage & increased pressure for population migration & infrastructure relocation.

K. Anthropogenic (human-caused) warming & sea level rise would continue for centuries, even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilized.

L. Consequences of multi-century warming:

1. Contraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet, & perhaps its total elimination, is projected to result in a sea rise of 7 Meters (22+ ft.) within several thousand yrs.

M. Anthropogenic warming:

1. It could lead to abrupt & irreversible impacts, depending on the rate & magnitude of climate change:

(a) There could be meters of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines, & inundations of low-lying areas, such as deltas & islands, over several thousand years.

(b) However, more rapid changes in sea levels within the time frame of centuries cannot be excluded.

2. Extinctions (medium confidence):

(a) If warming exceeds 2.7 – 4.5 °F, 30% of species are likely to  be at risk of extinction.

(b) If warming exceeds 6.3 °F, projections suggest there would be a significant # of extinctions (40 – 70% of species around the globe).

3. Meridianal Overturning Circulation (MOC) – (This is density-driven global circulation of oceans). It is very unlikely to undergo a large, abrupt transition during the 21st century.  However, changes in it will likely have long-term effects on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, & oceanic oxygen concentrations.

4. Oceanic Uptake of CO2 – This would lower the pH, & in turn, it may feedback on the climate system.

N. Adaptation & Mitigation Options:

1. More extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

2. There is high confidence that there are viable adaptation options.

3. Adaptive capacity is connected to social & economic development, but is currently unevenly distributed.

4. There is high agreement & much evidence of substantial economic potential [benefit] for mitigation of GHG emissions.  This could offset projected emissions or [even] reduce emissions below current levels.

N(1). Examples of planned adaptation:

1. Water

(a) Rainwater harvesting & water storage.

(b) Adjustment of planting dates, change in crop variety, crop relocation, & tree planting.

2. Protection [& strengthening] of existing natural barriers [e.g. New Orleans marshlands].

3. Shifting ski slopes to higher elevations.

4. Redesign & relocation of rails, roads, & other infrastructure, & change of emphasis [toward more efficient transportation].

5. Increase in energy efficiency & switching to renewable sources, thus reducing our dependency on a single source.

6. Examples of planned mitigation:

(a) CO2 capture & storage (sequestration).

(b) Reduction of fossil fuel subsidies.

(c) Subsidies for renewable energy.

(d) Production & increasing use of fuel-efficient vehicles, mandatory fuel economy.

(e) Reduction in CO2 & N2O emissions.

(f) Reducing deforestation

(g) Use of forestry products for bioenergy [renewable].

O. Future Energy Infrastructure – The cost expected to exceed 20 trillion US dollars, between 2005 – 2030 [25 yrs.].

P. There are a wide variety of policies & instruments available to create incentives for mitigation activities.

Q. There is high agreement & much evidence that there are near-term co-benefits to offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs.

R. There is high agreement & medium evidence that lifestyle & behavioral changes can contribute to climate mitigation.

S. There is high agreement & much evidence that international cooperation can reduce GHG emissions, e.g. Carbon markets.

T. It is very likely that climate change can slow progress toward sustainable development.

U. Science can provide criteria to judge ”dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

V. There are 5 reasons for concern.  These risks are identified with higher confidence than in the previous TAR (Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001):

1. There are threats to unique & vulnerable systems. e.g. polar, mountains, & coral reefs.

2. There are risks of extreme weather. e.g. droughts, heat waves, & floods.

3. Distribution of impacts & vulnerabilities –uneven. e.g. poor, elderly, low latitude, less developed, dry areas, mega deltas.

4. Aggregate impacts – e.g. net costs are projected to increase with amount of warming & time.

5. Risks of large-scale singularities:

e.g. There is high confidence that sea level rise would be much greater than in the 20th century, due largely to the contributions of the Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets, & that this could occur in century time scales.

(Recent observations, not accounted for in this report, could raise the rate of ice loss).

W. There is high confidence that neither adaptation nor mitigation can avoid all climate change impacts, but they can significantly reduce them.

X. If climate change is not mitigated, it is likely to exceed the capacity of natural & human-managed systems to adapt to it.

Y. Many impacts can be reduced, delayed, or avoided by mitigation over the next 2 – 3 decades to achieve lower stabilization levels.

Z. Delayed GHG emission reductions significantly constrain opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels, & increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts.

AA. In order to achieve the lowest mitigation scenario, emissions would need to peak no later than 2015 (7 yrs from now).

BB. Sea level rise, caused by warming, is inevitable:

(1) Even if GHGs were stabilized, thermal expansion (of oceans) would continue for several hundred yrs., causing an eventual sea level rise of several meters.  This would be much greater than projected for the 21st century.

(2) The Greenland Ice Sheet could contribute several meters more to sea rise in addition to that produced by thermal expansion.  This would occur if temperatures > 3.4 – 8.3 °F above the pre-industrial level are sustained over several centuries.

(3) Stabilization of GHG concentrations at, or above present levels would not stabilize sea levels for many centuries.

CC. Stabilization Scenarios & Their Effects On Temperature & Sea Level (Table SPM.6)

                       Effects_______________

Scenario                  CO2 eq.(ppm)                  Temperature(°F)                  Sea Level(ft.)

_____________________________________________________________________________

 

Best (I)                  350 – 400                                 3.6 – 4.3                          1.3 – 4.5

Worst (VI)           660 – 790                                 8.8 – 11.0                       1.8 – 11.8

(double pres. level)

_____________________________________________________________________________

 

• The table above shows effects from thermal expansion only. It does not take into account the additional contributions of ice sheets, glaciers, & ice caps to sea level & temperature. [It appears that temperatures in the Worst Case scenario could result in extinction of much life on Earth]

DD. There is high agreement & much evidence that emission stabilization levels can be achieved by deployment of technologies that are currently or soon to be available.

EE. Cost of Climate Change:

1. The impacts of climate change will very likely increase costs over time as the temperature rises.

2. There will be significant differences in costs among regions, populations, & sectors.  Estimates of damage are very likely underestimates, due to inability to measure all of them. [e.g. social costs]

ADDENDUM

TREATMENT OF UNCERTAINTY:

Qualitative: (theory, observation, models)

1. high agreement, much evidence

2. high agreement, medium evidence

3. medium agreement, medium evidence

Quantitative: (expert judgment, statistics, probability of occurrence).

1. very high confidence (9 out of 10)

2. high confidence (8 out of 10)

3. medium confidence (5 out of 10)

Specific Outcomes: (expert judgment, statistics)

1. virtually certain (> 99%)

2. extremely likely (> 95%)

3. very likely (> 90%)

4. likely ( > 66%)

5. unlikely (< 33%)

6. very unlikely (< 10%)

7. extremely unlikely (< 5%)

8. exceptionally unlikely (< 1%)

 

Notes:      1. Treatment of uncertainty is highlighted in red

2. K. F.’s emphasis is indicated by bolding

3. Opinion is enclosed in square brackets [  ]

4. Numerical ranges are also in square brackets e.g. [1.8 – 6.3]

They indicate 90% uncertainty intervals:

(1) 5% likelihood – above range in brackets

(2) 5% likelihood – below range in brackets

Original Documents:

1. IPCC 4th Assessment Report – Summary for Policy Makers

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm

 

 

 

climate change, The Earth

THE END OF OIL, AND THE RISE OF DENIAL

Jul 10th, 11 / 0 Comments

 

                  THE END OF OIL, AND THE RISE OF DENIAL       

Climbing Hubbert’s Peak        

         Good evening everyone.  We are here tonight to give you some facts, and some surprises.  We hope that you will like what we call our entertainment.

          I am going to start with a bit of history, about a man with a peculiar name.  Back in 1956, an oil geologist, by the name of L. King Hubbert, published an article in which he predicted that oil production in the United States would reach its peak between 1970 and 1972, and from then on would decrease every year.

         Despite the fact that Hubbert was a respected scientist and that he presented solid evidence for his conclusions, he was derided, laughed at, or ignored by almost everyone in the oil industry.

         Then came 1972.  In that year, oil production in the U.S. peaked, and since then it has declined every year. That, and not oil industry greed, China’s new energy appetite, or rebellions in Nigeria, is the main reason why you paid over $3.00/gallon for gasoline last summer, and our country is dependent on foreign oil.

          By the way, whose bill for heating and cooking with Propane went up this winter? ___________  Mine increased 50%.

         Other scientists have improved Hubbert’s calculations, and have extended the methodology he successfully used to predict Peak Oil in the U.S., to Peak World oil production. They have concluded that world oil production will peak within a few years from now, or has already peaked.

         It is in the nature of the oil industry that the figures given out by oil companies and OPEC countries cannot be trusted.  We only learn about such events sometime after they have happened.

         Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton University, Colin Campbell, who is a geophysicist, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, and a Republican Congressman from Maryland, Roscoe Bartlett, have been sounding the alarm. They have been derided, laughed at, or just plain ignored. It is only now, after the price of energy sky-rocketed last summer, that they are getting any public attention at all.    

The End of Cheap Oil

         The impending loss of cheap oil is going to profoundly affect the way we and our children lead our lives.

(enter stage L — a fairy, dressed in pink tutu, with a diamond tiara, and a wand with a star at its end – “she” is flippant and bubbly, and speaks in falsetto, kind of like Glenda the Good, from Dorothy and the Wizard of Oz)

[TF]         “Hi, I’m the Tooth Fairy (TF) and I’ve come to tell you that there’s nothing to worry about. There’s plenty of oil left. All you have to do is look for it under your pillow!”

[KF]         Hey, wait a minute! You’re interrupting a serious discussion. And you look ridiculous in that tutu. These people are here to learn important things that will affect their lives. Please do not interrupt us.  (TF glares at K, petulantly, hands on hips)

         Now, where was I?  Oh yes, even the phrase “oil production,” is misleading. Human beings have never produced even one drop of oil. It was all produced by Nature some 600 million years ago. More properly, we ought to call it “oil extraction.” The amount of oil available is, for all intents and purposes, finite (unless you want to wait around another 600 million years.) When it’s gone, it’s gone, and all the wishful thinking in the world won’t bring back a drop of it.

         Our contemporary, technological civilization is organized around and totally dependant on cheap oil. This situation is being compounded because every year America’s appetite for oil is increasing. China and India’s economies are growing at 10%/year and they are running around the world, trying to lock up all the existing and potential oil and natural gas sources they can get their hands on. When demand increases and supply goes down, the law of economics tells us that the price will increase.         

[TF]         Oh, yoo–hoo! I have an easy solution. You know, when children lose a tooth, all they have to do is put it under the pillow, and the tooth fairy (that’s me!) will come in the middle of the night and replace it with a dollar bill. Now, all you have to do is place your empty gas tank under your pillow and the Tooth Fairy will fill it up with oil made from Canadian tar sands, or Pennsylvania coal, or Ethanol from corn

[KF] Now look here, you demented elf! You are interrupting a serious discourse and making a farce out of this. Leave this room right now, or I’ll Canadian tar-sand and feather you! (TF exits in a huff, stage Rt.)

Say Goodbye To Cheap Oil

         Thank goodness were rid of that ridiculous person.  Magical thinking will not help us. Only a few years ago, the price of oil was 35$ per barrel. Last summer it shot up over $70. 

         Do not allow yourself to be fooled by the short-term ups and downs of the market.  When oil pipelines get blown up in Nigeria, or Putin threatens to cut off Russia’s oil supply to Belarus, the price spikes.  When the Northeastern United States experiences a tropical winter, oil prices dip down. Notice what happened recently to prices at your local gas station when old man winter finally hit New England.

          I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the price of oil next summer will jump over $70 per barrel again (sotto voce – may be even $80) and that the price will go up every year from now on. 

         The high price of energy will profoundly change our lifestyles.  The Global Economy, which is based on the ability to cheaply transport goods from one part of the world to another, will inevitably collapse.  Economies will, of necessity, become localized, and we will have to depend on local food supplies.

         Everyone knows. . .

[OF]   Hi there. I’m the Oil Fairy and I’ve come to tell you that there’s plenty of oil around the Caspian Sea. And, we know there’s lots of oil under the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge without having even drilled test wells there, or ……

[KF]   Great! Another idiot! Look here!  If they started exploring ANWAR tomorrow and found oil, which is not certain, it would take at least 10 years to locate, drill, and build a pipeline to carry the oil down to us. But, it sure would make a lot of money for Exxon, BP, etc. And maybe they can even get Halliburton to build the pipeline.

[OF]           Oh, but what about that oil they just found in the Gulf of Mexico?

[KF]   First, they have to go down 3,000 feet from the surface to the sea floor, and then drill another 5,000 feet to reach oil that may or may not be there.  You see, that oil is going to be very expensive to get, and that is just my point. 

[OF] But all I have to do is wave my magic wand and. . .

[KF] There is no such thing as magic!  You can’t make something from nothing. Why don’t you go away and stop bothering us with your wishful thinking?  (TF stands petulantly, hands on hips, & glares at KF)

         They have looked everywhere, and there are no hidden sources of oil. There is no adequate substitute for oil. You can’t stick a nuclear energy plant in your car and make it run. Too heavy. You can convert coal to gas, but the more coal you dig, the more expensive it will be to get to.  And up and up will go the costs.

         As for corn-derived Ethanol, it is the latest fad of the technofixers. Corn is a very energy- demanding crop.  At least two scientific studies have shown that more energy has to be put into the process than can be gotten out of it.  That’s a heck of a way to free yourself from foreign oil.

         Not only that, but every acre put into production of corn for Ethanol, is an acre taken out of the production of food in a country where the number of food-producing farms is shrinking every year. If our government is so worried about our dependency on foreign oil, how vulnerable will we feel when we become dependant on foreign-grown food?

         This is not theoretical.  The price of tortillas in Mexico has risen 50% in the last few months because a large portion of the US corn crop that used to be sent there has been diverted into ethanol.  And that’s no joke to the average Mexican family, who use tortillas for almost all their meals. 

         If you think that this situation is a concern only for poor Mexicans, think again.  The Associated Press reported only a few weeks ago that “strong demand for corn from ethanol plants is driving up the cost of livestock, and will raise the prices for beef, pork and chicken.” 

         What we now have is what amounts to a competition for shrinking agricultural land between automobile owners and families, who need to put food on the table for their children.  If you will excuse the expression, there is no free lunch, and that is for sure.

What Is Oil Good For?

         The first thing people think about when you mention oil is fuel – energy – energy to drive your car to work, to fly by plane to the West Coast, energy to push that diesel truck up the Interstate bringing cheap stuff to Home Depot and Wall Mart.

         But energy needs are just the tip of the iceberg. Where do you think your anti-allergy pills come from? Your antibiotics?   Most medications are synthesized from oil.  What do you think will happen to your medical bills when oil hits $100/barrel? $200/barrel?

         Does anyone here know what the Asphalt that our highways are built with is made from?  ________________ 

         Did you notice that last summer, Bonner County cut back on paving local roads  by 50%?  And, a few weeks ago, the Idaho Transportation Department announced that they were delaying 2 out of 4 widening projects for highway 95.  Both situations occurred because the price of asphalt has doubled in less than a year. That is just a little taste of what is to come.   Will Idaho be able to build more highways?  We will be lucky if they have enough money to fill in this winter’s pot holes.

                  What do you think plastic is made from? Take a wild guess. ( _________ )

[KF]  Hey, Oil Fairy, do you know how much plastic there is in your refrigerator? your iPod?  your automobile?  I’ll bet even your magic wand is plastic. 

         Another question for you fairy! Do you like bananas in your cereal for breakfast? Now, don’t tell me you just wave your wand and make them  appear!  Do you know where that banana came from?

[OF] (Timorously) – Ecuador? 

{KF} How many bananas are you going to eat when the cost of transporting them from Ecuador doubles, triples?  Food distribution patterns are going to have to change or we will not be able to feed over 300 million Americans. 

Bioregionalism anyone?

[OF}  I think I’ll leave. The batteries in my magic wand seem to have run down.  I wonder what batteries are made of?  Goodbye.

[KF] Good riddance! Whew! We are finally rid of her! Now, where was I?  

         Oh yes. Let’s talk more about food.  After all, it is your ultimate energy supply.  What is the fertilizer that makes that food grow, made from?  Anyone?  _________

         How about the pesticides and herbicides that they use on farms? What are they made from?  _______________ How much oil did they expend to manufacture the combines, tractors, and the other mechanized equipment found on most farms today?  And, how much energy is used to run them?  How much fuel was expended to transport food from Imperial Valley, California to your dining room table last night?

The Technofixers

         And that’s just the beginning. What about – - – - – - – - – - – (Big rumpus –Technology Fairy enters – stage L)

[TF]  Hi – I’m the Technology Fairy, and I’ve come to save you! Not to worry! I’ve got a technological fix for everything! Just look under your pillow!

(someone in audience shouts – “Hey “Techy,” you’re cute”)

[TF]   I’m not only cute, I’m clever. Hey, do you know what we can do to squeeze more out of an oil field? I can drill on a slant to get oil from under nearby mountains or drill down a mile with offshore drilling rigs.

[KF] (exasperatedly) It’s already been done.

[TF] Oh – well, I can pump water or steam into the wells to push up more oil.

[KF]   Been there – done that. It adds to the cost, and eventually it messes up the entire oil field.

[TF]    Oh – well, I can explore other parts of the world, using high-tech equipment, 3-D computer imaging, and find loads of oil.

[KF]   (addressing audience)  They have almost certainly already found all the great oil fields on Earth.  There is no other place to look for large amounts of oil except the Arctic Ocean and the South China Sea.  That’s why China, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam have recently been threatening each other over that area. I don’t think that superpowers fighting an oil war is going to help lower the cost of oil.

[TF, getting surly]  Yeah, well how about all those hydrogen-driven cars? -  clean, no pollution, free energy. yippee!

[KF]    You know, it’s a funny thing.  Nobody talks about where they’re going to get all those H2 atoms. You see, they’re going to pull them off of – guess what?  _____________ oil and natural gas. That’s like robbing Peter to pay Paul. You see, H2 cars are not energy sources. They are really just big batteries, and where is all that infrastructure to transport the H2 atoms to where they can be pumped into cars? It’s non-existent.  And, are they going to store the H2 in tanks.  I do not think I would want to live near one of them.

(Image – Hindenburg exploding)

[TF]   Well, what about all the energy you can get from that Liquefied Natural Gas from Africa?

[KF] Listen, speaking of energy, you’re wasting ours. What’s next? Are you going to invent a perpetual-motion machine?  First, they must transport the LNG at -260° F in tankers.  Then, what do you do with it?  They will need to build special ports to receive LNG, and special facilities to store and transport it throughout the United States.

          Do me a favor Technology Fairy. Get lost!  Put an egg in your shoe and beat it!                                         

[TF]    Well, if that’s the way you feel about it, go drown in your misery. What a grouch! I have a million ideas of how to get more oil. Maybe there’s some on Mars. There’ll always be a technological fix right around the corner. Off I go to find one. Don’t worry – be happy. La De Dah De Dah – - – - – - – -  [exit stage R]

[KF]   Well, I sure hope we’ve seen the last Fairy.

(voice from audience –“Don’t you bet on it”!)

         One of things that most concerns me about Peak Oil is that in our efforts to find substitutes, the world will turn to even more highly polluting fuels, like coal, that emit high amounts of CO2.  This will only exacerbate and speed up Climate Change.

          The end of cheap oil will obviously have profound effects on our lives, both upon our economy and our social structure.  Lanie will talk more about that when she speaks to you about the role of cultural beliefs in the way we treat the Earth.

The Role of Psychological Denial

         If you accept the seriousness of what I have just been telling you, you must be thinking ‘How on Earth have we gotten ourselves into such a predicament?’  After all, there are very smart people in governments, business, and academia all over the world.  How could they have overlooked this situation?  Why did they not start planning for these contingencies long ago?

         I would like to take a few moments to explore these questions because I think that they are important in understanding what we are up against when we try to change people’s attitudes.

         Three weeks ago (3/7/07), there was a public meeting in New Orleans, called by city officials to discuss plans for the reconstruction of the city after the devastation of Katrina.

         After discussing such critical matters as where a new baseball stadium would be constructed and the repair of an historical fort, a woman stood up and demanded to know why strengthening New Orleans’ levies was not included in the plans.  A city official replied that, “It was an oversight, and would be corrected in the revised plan.”

         How would you account for such an “oversight” as forgetting the levies?  There is an explanation for this.  It is called Denial.

         Psychological Denial is a defense mechanism, often put into use when a person is faced with a fact that is too painful to accept, and rejects it instead, despite what may be overwhelming evidence.

 I believe that not only individuals but, entire cultures can go into a state of denial when faced with a situation, which, if taken seriously, would force them to reevaluate their entire lifestyle and change it.

         I believe that is the situation our culture is facing right now with respect to the end of Oil and Climate Change.

          Polls show that it is only recently that a majority of the American people has accepted the reality of Global Climate Change.  This has happened only after: a lot of strange weather, many showings of “An Inconvenient Truth,” and the recent well-publicized report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that states unequivocally that climate change is a reality and that Man has had a central role in bringing it about.

         In order to convince the Doubting Thomases, we need to just keep chipping away, and not get discouraged.  Eventually, their defenses will break down, and they will admit reality.  Of course that long delay may put our entire society in a position from which it cannot extricate itself.

( Joshua Walters comes in, plays “Swimming in D’ Nile” on his guitar, & leads the audience in the refrain)

         The good news is that, we in Sandpoint do not have to wait for our government and most of the country to catch up with our understanding of this situation.  We can start planning right now.  With the help of local groups like ClimateCAN, we can work to assess what needs to be done to make our region more self sufficient in the basics, like food, fuel, and transportation, and to persuade our public officials to start planning for the inevitable.

         Yes, we can come together and start to form a true community like the ones that prevailed in small town America little more than a century ago.  A lot of the changes we have to make will be inconvenient and even painful. But Sandpoint at least will have a head start, and we may find some of the changes even to be good, with a renewed emphasis on family, friends, and community.

 

 

 

                                                   

        

        

         

Ancient Pathways Group, climate change, End of oil, Peak Oil, Programs

Newsletters, 2011

Jun 20th, 11 / 0 Comments

Our Newsletters will begin in July, 2011.

With respect to our wild lands,  it will cover topics, such as Hunter Gatherers, Wilderness Survival, and Predator Prey Relationships, with emphasis on the role of wolves in healthy ecosystems. 

The environment takes in an even wider swath, so the Newsletter will also cover Cancer, Climate Change, Peak Oil, and Molecular Genetics, especially Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs).

Anything that effects the health of the Earth is grist for our mill, and hopefully of interest to you. We will therefore upon occasion, wander farther afield if it seems relevant to your interests, to such topics as primitive skills, wilderness awareness, the evolution of man, and so on.

 

 

Please check the News category for the latest topics of interest

Ancient Pathways Group, Cancer, Hunter Gatherers, Molecular Genetics, Newsletter, The Earth, uncategorized, Wolves

Introduction to Animism

May 7th, 11 / 1 Comment

Introduction to Animism

 by Lanie Johnson, M.A.  and Ken Fischman, Ph.D.

Let’s start with some formal definitions of animism.

 “the belief that all natural phenomena have souls independent of their physical being” (from Latin anima, soul), Webster’s New World DICTIONARY, Third College Edition)

 “Any of various primitive beliefs whereby natural phenomena and things animate and inanimate are held to possess an innate soul.” (The American Heritage DICTIONARY of the English Language)

Ken and I have observed that most people are either not familiar with Animism or have differing ideas about what it is. This is understandable since there are no written historical records. However, scholars in archaeology, anthropology, history & philosophy of religion are in general agreement on these two points:

         • Animism is the most ancient religion. Although there is some controversy regarding the derivation of the word “religion” – most people agree that it is from the Latin religare (to bind strongly. So Animism is like other religions in that it involves being strongly bound, but it differs in that its binding is to the Universe rather than to a particular deity.

                  “A religion old or new, that stressed the magnificence of the

                  universe as revealed by modern science, might be able to draw

                  forth reserves of reverence and awe hardly tapped by con-

                  conventional faiths. Sooner or later, such a religion will emerge.”

                                                               – Carl Sagan, Astronomer & science  writer, 1994

         Animism is not a religion that has a special building or temple, or scripture, or holy days. The religion of Animism, strongly binding one to the Universe in all its manifestations, all of which have spirit or soul, is more a way of life or culture than a formal religion.

         Animism was originally the religion of all Hunter-Gatherers, our ancestors for most of the last 200,000 years. How do we know that? Through archaeological traces of our ancestors and comparative anthropological studies of present-day hunter gatherers, all of whom are animists.  

        It is basically a belief that every part of the world is suffused with spirit and is therefore sacred. It  thus stands apart from most contemporary religions in which only certain things, like a particular text, such as a bible, or building, like a church, mosque, or synagogue, is sacred, and the rest of the world is regarded as profane.

         Our present culture started only about 10,000 years ago. So, the original religion of most of humanity has been Animism for 95% of the time we have been here.

         To tell you the truth we (Ken & Lanie) sometimes confuse hunter gatherers and animists, because a hunter gatherer’s spiritual life is so infused with their culture.

         There is some confusion about the difference between Hunter-Gatherers, Indigenous people, Primitive or Tribal people, and so on.  People like the Maasai and Bantu of Africa, and many American Indians, were not Hunter-Gatherers.  They are or were horticulturalists, that is, people who till small gardens, or agriculturalists who farm, or pastoralists who herd animals.

          Animism can also be distinguished from Paganism in that Pagan means “of the country” and refers to farmers.

As their name implies, Hunter-Gatherer people hunt animals and gather wild plants they find around them.  They live in small groups or bands of 10-30 related persons. Most of their possessions are communal. They have no hereditary or elected leaders. They make decisions by consensus and have a cooperative, sharing society. Of course, this doesn’t mean they never get angry, jealous, or mean.  However, they have created a culture in which such behavior is minimalized. Theirs is a way of life in which one has relationships with non-human life forms – thanking plants or animals used to sustain human life, for example.

We would like you to listen now to the words of Chief Seattle, and see if you recognize some of these animist ideas in his speech:

CHIEF SEATTLE’S SPEECH                                                                                               

            First off, we need to tell you that these are probably not Chief Seattle’s exact words. They are based on notes taken by a local physician, who attended the speech, and which were written up some years later in a newspaper article. Nevertheless, the sentiments expressed in this speech fit so remarkably the animist point of view, and have such a poetic nobility, that they can stand almost as an animist manifesto. Here are the words: 

“The President in Washington sends word that he wishes to buy our land. But how can you buy or sell the sky? The land? The idea is strange to us. If we do not own the freshness of the air and the sparkle of the water, how can you buy them?

         Every part of this earth is sacred to my people. Every shining pine needle, every sandy shore, every mist in the dark woods, every meadow, every humming insect. All are holy in the memory and experience of my people.

         We know the sap which courses through the trees as we know the blood that courses through our veins. We are part of the earth and it is part of us. The perfumed flowers are our sisters. The bear, the deer, the great eagle, these are our brothers. The rocky crests, the juices in the meadow, [the body heat of the pony,. . .] and man, all belong to the same family

         The rivers are our brothers. They quench our thirst. They carry our canoes and feed our children. So you must give to the rivers the kindness you would give any brother.

         If we sell you our land, remember that the air is precious to us; that the air shares its spirit with all the life it supports. The wind that gave our grandfather his first breath also receives his last sigh. The wind also gives our children the spirit of life. So if we sell you our land, you must keep it apart and sacred, as a place where man can go to taste the wind that is sweetened by the meadow flowers.

         Will you teach your children what we have taught our children? That the earth is our mother? What befalls the earth befalls all the sons of the earth.

         This we know: the earth does not belong to man, man belongs to the earth. All things are connected like the blood that unites us all. Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself.

         . . .Your destiny is a mystery to us. What will happen when the buffalo are all slaughtered? The wild horses tamed? What will happen when the secret corners of the forest are heavy with the scent of many men and the view of the ripe hills is blotted by talking wires? Where will the thicket be? Gone! Where will the eagle be? Gone! And what is it to say goodbye to the swift pony and the hunt? The end of living and the beginning of survival. . .

         We love this earth as a newborn loves its mother’s heartbeat. So, if we sell you our land, love it as we have loved it. Care for it as we have cared for it. Hold in your mind the memory of the land as it is when you receive it. Preserve the land for all children and love it, as God loves us all.

         As we are part of the land, you too are part of the land. This earth is precious to us. It is also precious to you. One thing we know: there is only one God. No man, be he Red Man or White Man, can be apart. We are brothers after all.

Hunter Gatherer Beliefs:

         How far back does Man’s intelligence and sense of aesthetics and beauty go?   Thirty thousand year old flutes, cunningly carved from the wing bones of Swans and Mammoth ivory, demonstrate planning, impressive craftsmanship, and love of music.  Four hundred thousand-year-old throwing spears (or Javelins) show that H. erectus was no unconscious thinking scavenger, but was capable of forethought, and able to learn skills handed down from others.  But, were these guys religious?

         Deliberate Burials:

         So far, there are no hints of any religious thoughts on the part of H. erectus.  However, there were deliberate burials of Neanderthals.  Do they represent thoughts of an afterlife or a return from death?  The position of the buried person, often in a fetal position, and facing East toward the rising sun, indicate hope for renewal just as the Sun is reborn each day.  The inclusion of tools, weapons, and ornamentation shows the hope for a return in which the buried party will find all the possessions needed to carry on his/her life again.  Some burials also contained offerings of such things as deer antlers, boar jaws, flint tools, and Red Deer jaw bones.  There are other clues.

         Cave Bear Grottos:

          High up in the Alps grottos have been discovered in which many Cave Bear skulls have been carefully arranged.  Cave Bears are thought to represent the Animal Master, whose propitiation would hopefully insure the return the next year of Man’s principal food animals. 

         Religious thoughts:

         Cro-Magnon cave paintings in France and Spain, such as the “Sorcier des Trois Freres” may also represent Animal Masters or some kind of sympathetic magic, insuring the success of the The Great Hunt, which was surely early Man’s greatest occupation.  His view of the Earth as sacred is demonstrated in contemporary HGs like Australian Aborigines, who see animate forms in natural geography, like the “woman’s legs” in NW Australia 

Cosmology

         What about HG cosmology? that is, beliefs about the relationship between humans & Nature. One expression of their cosmology is in the games they play. The widespread incidence of games of chance (gambling, really) shows an underlying philosophy that life is a game of chance; in other words, acceptance of Nature and what it brings. On the other hand, games of strategy, which appeared later, among agriculturalists, indicate interest in control.

         Ancient myths are often about animals as the first people – or older brothers – who are valued as teachers. HG religion is usually called Animism, or the belief that everything in the world is alive and has a spirit: people, animals, birds, trees, rocks, water, etc. It’s based on respect for the natural world and all its beings.

Animism, as Daniel Quinn says, “embodies a worldview: the world is a sacred place, and humans belong in that sacred place.” There are many different ways of relating to the Natural World as an Animist, as we’ll now see as we explore some selected readings:

RECOMMENDED BOOKS

THE LOST WORLD OF THE KALAHARI. Laurens Van der Post.

         The beautiful and insightful adventure of a South African WWII hero, who upon his return, searches for & finds the last remnants of the remarkable Bushmen, surviving in style in an inhospitable desert.

THE HARMLESS PEOPLE. Elizabeth Marshal Thomas.

         An anthropologist lives with South African Bushmen and describes a society that works – wonderfully. She returns 20 years later to see what effect our culture has had on theirs.

THE FOREST PEOPLE. A Study of the Pygmies of the Congo. Colin M. Turnbull.

         Another anthropologist lives with Congo Pygmies. He admires their lifestyle and social organization, which they manage to retain despite the incursions of Bantu agriculturalists. 

THE LOST CIVILIZATIONS OF THE STONE AGE. Richard Rudgley.

         A scholarly analysis of the impressive technological and cultural achievements of our ancient ancestors.        

COMING HOME TO THE PLEISTOCENE. Paul Shepard.

         Do hunter-gatherers have something to tell modern culture? A brilliant analysis by the most respected scholar on the subject. 

ORIGINAL WISDOM: Stories of an Ancient Way of Knowing. Robert Wolff.

         A psychologist lives with the most remote people of Malaysia, the S’ingoi.

OUR BABIES, OURSELVES: How Biology and Culture Shape the Way We Parent. Meredith F. Small.

         A Pediatric Anthropologist examines different cultures’ approach to parenting.

LIMITED WANTS, UNLIMITED MEANS. A Reader on Hunter-Gatherer Economics and the Environment. John Gowdy, ed.

         The interaction between Hunter-Gatherer economics and the environment. Describes a culture in harmony with the Earth.

Animism, Four Directions, Hunter Gatherers, The Earth

Recommended Books on Earth-Based Peoples and Animism

Apr 26th, 11 / 0 Comments

RECOMMENDED BOOKS ON ANIMISM

COMING HOME TO THE PLEISTOCENE. Paul Shepard.

            Do hunter-gatherers have something to tell modern culture? A brilliant analysis by the most respected scholar on the subject.

DANCING WITH THE WHEEL. The Medicine Wheel Workbook.

            Sun Bear is of Chippewa descent. He founded the Bear Tribe, which welcomes natives and non-natives, and is located near Spokane, WA. His book shows how to apply the Medicine Wheel, based on natural cycles, to your life. Includes the 4 directions.

LETTERS FROM A WILD STATE. Rediscovering Our True Relationship to Nature. James G. Cowan

            Cowen is an Australian, who has spent much time with Australian aborigines as well as with several other indigenous peoples. He brings the lyrical mind of a poet to penetrate deeply into the mythical minds of these people.

MESSENGER OF THE GODS.  Tribal Elders Reveal the Ancient Wisdom of the Earth. James G. Cowan.

            Cowen gains much wisdom and insight from his contacts with the few remaining animists living on islands between Australia and New Guinea. They tell him their personal stories, myths, and legends.

NATURE AND MADNESS. Paul Shepard.

            Shepard’s most profound work. Here he shows how the life cycle of an individual is intimately tied to natural cycles, and what happens when a culture  disconnects it.

ORIGINAL WISDOM: Stories of an Ancient Way of Knowing. Robert Wolff.

            A psychologist lives with the most remote people of Malaysia, the Sng’oi., and discovers remarkable things about these people’s abilities.

ISHMAEL. Daniel Quinn

             The transformative, award winning novel, depicting the contradictions between the animist and contemporary cultures. 

PROVIDENCE. The Story of a Fifty-Year Vision Quest. Daniel Quinn

            The autobiography of the prize winning author of Ishmael, Quinn’s dream as a seven year old and his vision in a Trappist monastery prefigure his inexorable path to his culminating work.

THE FOREST PEOPLE. A Study of the Pygmies of the Congo. Colin M. Turnbull.

            An anthropologist lives with Congo Pygmies. He admires their lifestyle and social organization, which they manage to retain despite the incursions of Bantu agriculturalists.

THE HARMLESS PEOPLE. Elizabeth Marshal Thomas.

            An anthropologist, as a teenager with her parents lived with South African Bushmen and describes a society that works – wonderfully. She returns 20 years later to see what effect our culture has had on theirs.

THE OLD WAY. Elizabeth Marshall Thomas

            The author, who lived with the Bushmen for several years, uses the perspective of her mature years to examine their  culture in depth. It is interwoven with personal experiences and insights, as well as with comparisons to our culture.

THE LOST WORLD OF THE KALAHARI. Laurens Van der Post.

            The beautiful and insightful adventure of a South African WWII hero, who upon his return, searches for & finds the last remnants of the remarkable Bushmen. They are surviving in style in an inhospitable desert.

THE HEART OF THE HUNTER. Laurens Van der Post           

            Continues the story begun in Lost World of the Kalahari. It is an elegiac evocation of both the external & internal worlds of the last of the Hunter Gatherers, written by a keen observer.

THE ISLAND WITHIN. Richard Nelson

            An anthropologist, turned subsistence hunter, goes to an island off the coast of Alaska to find deer and grizzlies. He develops an animist spirituality. This is an astonishingly beautiful book about the relation of a man to nature.

THE TRACKER. Tom Brown, Jr.

            The story of the apprenticeship of seven year old Tom Brown to an Apache scout and elder, Stalking Wolf, in which Tom learns a lot more than wilderness survival skills.

TOM BROWN’S FIELD GUIDE TO NATURE OBSERVATION AND TRACKING. Tom Brown, Jr.

            The almost legendary master of tracking and primitive wilderness survival has written a manual on how to not only survive, but to flourish in Nature’s embrace. Tune into the man, who has reconnected thousands of people to the Earth and gain a little of his ethic and wisdom as a bonus.

THANKSGIVING ADDRESS. Jake Swamp

            Swamp was the Peacemaker for the 6 Nations of the Iroquois. He was head of the Tree of Peace Society. This pamphlet, which is a classic example of Native American thanksgiving, and said on every occasion, can be obtained from John Stokes , of Thetrackingproject.org

THE LOST CIVILIZATIONS OF THE STONE AGE. Richard Rudgley.

         A scholarly analysis of the impressive technological and cultural achievements of our ancient ancestors.

OUR BABIES, OURSELVES: How Biology and Culture Shape the Way We Parent. Meredith F. Small.

         A Pediatric Anthropologist examines different cultures’ approach to parenting.

LIMITED WANTS, UNLIMITED MEANS. A Reader on Hunter-Gatherer Economics and the Environment. John Gowdy, ed.

         The interaction between Hunter-Gatherer economics and the environment. Describes a culture in harmony with the Earth.

Ancient Pathways Group, Animism, Hunter Gatherers, Paleoanthropology, The Earth, wilderness awareness

The End Of Oil

Dec 20th, 10 / 3 Comments

 

THE END OF OIL, AND THE RISE OF DENIAL (6/3/06, rev. 9/10/11)

Ken Fischman,Ph.D.,  Lanie Johnson, M.A.,  and the Ancient Pathways Players

Climbing Hubbert’s Peak

Back in 1956, an oil geologist, by the name of L. King Hubbert, published an article in which he predicted that oil production in the U.S would reach its peak between 1970 and 1972, and from then on would decrease every year.
Despite the fact that Hubbert was a respected scientist and that he presented solid evidence for his conclusions, he was derided, laughed at, or ignored by almost everyone in the oil industry.
In 1972, oil production in the U.S. peaked, and since then it has declined every year. That, and not oil industry greed, China’s new energy appetite, or rebellions in Libya, is the main reason why you are paying over $3.00/gallon for gasoline and our country is dependent on foreign oil.
By the way, my bill for heating and cooking with Propane went up 28% last winter. Did you know that natural gas production in the U.S. peaked way back in 1956, and has gone down every year since then?
Other scientists have improved L. King Hubbert’s fact gathering, formulas, and calculations, and have extended the methodology he successfully used to predict Peak Oil in the U.S. to computer simulations of world oil production.

They have concluded that world oil production will peak within a few years, or has already peaked. Kenneth Deffeyes is a Geologist from Princeton University, and is one of the leaders of the Peak Oil movement. He has calculated that world oil production reached its highest level in November, 2005. It is in the nature of the oil industry that we only learn about such events after they have happened.
Deffeyes, Colin Campbell, who is a Scottish geophysicist, energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, along with Roscoe Bartlett, who is a former engineer, and presently a Republican Congressman from Maryland, have been sounding the alarm. They have been derided, laughed at, or just plain ignored. It is only now, with the price of energy sky-rocketing, that they are getting any public attention at all.
If you remember your history, the Greek seer, Cassandra, made dire predictions about the fate of Greece. She was laughed at too. But, she had the last laugh. Classical Greece is gone. You can visit the ruins of the Acropolis in Athens, if you buy your airline tickets now while you can still afford them.

The End of Cheap Oil

Now, you may wonder, why am I talking about oil at a workshop on ancient skills and beliefs? It is because the impending loss of cheap oil is going to profoundly affect the way we and our children lead our lives.

[enter stage L -- a fairy, dressed in pink tutu, with a diamond tiara, and a wand with a star at its end – “she” is flippant and bubbly, and speaks in falsetto, kind of like Glenda the Good, from Dorothy and the Wizard of Oz]


“Hi, I’m the Tooth Fairy (TF) and I’ve come to tell you that there’s nothing to worry about. There’s plenty of oil left. All you have to do is look for it under your pillow!”


[KF] Hey, wait a minute! You’re interrupting a serious discussion. And you look ridiculous in that tutu. These people are here to learn important things that will affect their lives. Please do not interrupt us. [TF glares at K, petulantly, hands on hips ]


[KF] Now, where was I? Oh yes, even the phrase “oil production,” is misleading. Human beings have never produced even one drop of oil. It was all produced by Nature some 600 million years ago. More properly, we ought to call it “oil extraction.” The amount of oil available is, for all intents and purposes, finite (unless you want to wait around another 600 million years.) When it’s gone, it’s gone, and all the wishful thinking in the world won’t bring back a drop of it.
The fact is, that the world is rapidly running out of conventional oil, and this fact is absolutely critical because our contemporary, technological civilization is organized around and totally dependant on cheap oil. This situation is being compounded because every year America’s appetite for oil is increasing. China and India’s economies are growing at 10%/year and are they running around the world, trying to lock up all the existing and potential oil and natural gas sources they can get their hands on. When demand increases and supply goes down, the law of economics tells us that the price will increase. My truck camper makes about 9 miles/gal of gas. I ‘m thinking of trading it in for a Prius.


[TF] Oh, yoo–hoo! I have an easy solution. You know, when children lose a tooth, all they have to do is put it under the pillow, and the tooth fairy (that’s me!) will come in the middle of the night and replace it with a dollar bill. Now, all you have to do is place your empty gas tank under your pillow and the Tooth Fairy will fill it up with oil made from Canadian tar sands, or Pennsylvania coal, or Ethanol from corn – better yet, we can fill it with Abiotic oils from the bottom of the sea of which there’s an endless supply! Of (course) no one’s ever seen it, but I am sure it’s there because we need it!


[KF] Now look here, you demented elf! You are interrupting a serious discourse and making a farce out of this. Leave this room right now, or I’ll Canadian tar-sand and feather you! [TF exits in a huff, stage Rt.]

Say Goodbye To Cheap Oil

Thank goodness were rid of that ridiculous person. Magical thinking will not help us. This is a rational society. Only a few years ago, the price of oil was 35$ per gallon. Now it is over $80. I predict that the price of oil next summer will be over $100 per gallon, and that the price will go up every year from now on.
The high price of energy will profoundly change our lifestyles. The Global Economy, which is based on the ability to cheaply transport goods from one part of the world to another, will inevitably collapse. Economies will, of necessity, become localized, and we will have to depend on local food supplies.
Everyone knows. . .


[Oil Fairy] Hi there. I’m the Oil Fairy and I’ve come to tell you that there’s plenty of oil around the Caspian Sea. And, we know there’s lots of oil under the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge without having even drilled test wells there, or ……


[KF] Great! Another idiot! Look here! If they started exploring ANWAR tomorrow and found oil, which is not certain, it would take at least 10 years to locate, drill, and build a pipeline to carry the oil down to us. Furthermore, even the most optimistic estimate of how much oil there is under those herds of Caribou, would supply U.S. needs for only 3 to 6 months. But, it sure would make a lot of money for Exxon, BP, etc. And maybe they can get Halliburton to build the pipeline.

[OF] But all I have to do is wave my magic wand and. . .


[KF] There is no such thing as magic! You can’t make something from nothing. Why don’t you go away and stop bothering us with your wishful thinking? [TF stands petulantly, hands on hips, & glares at KF]
They have looked everywhere, and there are no hidden sources of oil. Not only that, but there is no adequate substitute for oil. You can’t stick a nuclear energy plant in your car and make it run, or put one in a Boeing 747 and make it fly either. Too heavy. You can convert coal to gas, but the more coal you dig, the more expensive it will be to get to, and how are you going to transport that heavy stuff from Pennsylvania to Florida? And up and up will go the costs.
As for corn-derived Ethanol, it is the latest fad of the technofixers. At least two studies have shown that more energy has to be put into the process than can be gotten out of it. Corn is a very energy- demanding crop. It will make a lot of money for agribusiness, but it is not the answer to our energy problems. Not only that, but every acre put into production of corn for Ethanol, is an acre taken out of the production of food in a country where the number of food-producing farms is shrinking every year. If our government is so worried out our dependency on foreign oil, how vulnerable will we feel when we become dependant on foreign-grown food?

What Is Oil Good For?

The first thing people think about when you mention oil is fuel – energy – energy to drive your car to work, to fly by plane to the West Coast in order to spend Thanksgiving with your far-flung family, energy to push that diesel locomotive up the track, bringing cheap stuff to Wal-Mart.
But energy needs are just the tip of the iceberg. Where do you think your anti-allergy pills come from? Your antibiotics? Most medications are synthesized from oil. By the way, what do you think is the most expensive kind of building to construct and maintain? (pause) Anyone?  No, it’s not the Pentagon. It’s your local hospital. By the square foot, by the little white pill, by the 2 million dollar MRI they just installed. A single Cancer treatment costs almost 10 thousand dollars. . . . . It is by far the most expensive structure around. What do you think will happen to your medical bills when oil hits $100/barrel? $200/barrel?


By the way, what do you think plastic is made from? Take a wild guess. …. Hey, Oil Fairy, do you know how much plastic there is in your house? your refrigerator? your automobile? I’ll bet even your magic wand is plastic.
Another question for you fairy! Do you like bananas in your cereal for breakfast? Now, don’t tell me you just wave your wand and make them appear! Do you know
where that banana came from?


[OF] Timorously – Ecuador?


[KF] How many bananas are you going to eat when the cost of transporting them from Ecuador doubles? triples? How much of the food that you buy in Safeway is grown within 100 miles of here? Very little, but food distribution patterns are going to have to change or we will not be able to feed over 320 million Americans. Bioregionalism anyone?


[OF} I think I’ll leave . The batteries in my magic wand seem to have run down. I wonder what batteries are made of? Goodbye.

[KF]  Good riddance! Whew! We are finally rid of her! Now, where was I? Oh yes,
Let’s talk more about food. After all, it is your ultimate energy supply. Is your food cheap? plentiful?. . . What is the fertilizer that makes that food grow made from? Anyone?….  How about the pesticides and herbicides that they use on farms? What are they made from? …. How much oil did they expend to manufacture that tractor, and the other mechanized equipment found on most farms today? And, how much energy is used to run them? How much fuel was expended to transport food from Imperial Valley, California to your dining room table last night?
How much plastic is there in your computer? And how much oil did they use to dig up, refine, and transport all those rare materials that give your hard disk that prodigious amount of memory the computer companies boast of?

The Technofixers

And that’s just the beginning. What about – - – - – - – - – - -

[Big rumpus –Technology Fairy enters – stage L]


[TF] Hi – I’m the Technology Fairy, and I’ve come to save you! Not to worry! I’ve got a technological fix for everything! Just look under your pillow!

(someone in audience shouts – “Hey “Techy,” you’re cute”)


[TF] I’m not only cute, I’m clever. Hey, do you know what we can do to squeeze more out of an oil field? I can drill on a slant to get oil from under nearby mountains or drill down a mile with offshore drilling rigs that are already a mile below the ocean surface.


[KF] (exasperatedly) It’s already been done, and you know what happened. Remember BP and the Gulf oil spill?


[TF] Oh – well, I can pump water into the wells to push up more oil.


[KF] Been there – done that. Do you wonder why the Saudis are doing it now? Can it be that their oil fields are drying up? It adds to the cost, and eventually it messes up the entire oil field.


[TF] Oh – well, I can explore other parts of the world, using high-tech equipment, and find loads of oil.


[KF] Until 2006 oil companies had been spending less money every year on oil exploration. Only now, with the price of oil soaring, has it become worthwhile for them to put money into exploration. The reason for that is that they have almost certainly already found all the great oil fields on Earth. There is no other place to look for large amounts of oil except the Arctic Ocean and the South China Sea, and that’s why China, Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam have recently been threatening each other over that area. I don’t think that superpowers fighting an oil war is going to help lower the cost of oil.


[TF, getting surly] Yeah, well how about all those hydrogen-driven cars? – clean, no pollution, free energy. yippee!


[KF] You know, it’s a funny thing. Nobody talks about where they’re going to get all those H2 atoms. You see, they’re going to pull them off of – guess what? ….  oil and natural gas. That’s like robbing Peter to pay Paul. You see, H2 cars are not energy sources. They are really just big batteries, and where is all that infrastructure to transport the H2 atoms to where they can be pumped into cars? It’s non-existent.


[TF] Boy, what a spoil-sport you are! Hey – they can get the H2s from water. Any school kid knows that! We’ve got plenty of water. All you have to do is stick a positive electrode in one end of a water tank and a negative one at the other – voila – (that’s a French word, you know!) you’ve got all the H2 atoms you want – just like we did in high school science class!


[KF] You forgot one little thing – the electric current to do the job. You will use more energy to liberate those H2 atoms than they will generate. That’s a good way to go broke -– energy-wise.


[TF] Well, what about all that Liquefied Natural Gas from Africa?


[KF] Listen, speaking of energy, you re wasting ours. What’s next? Are you going to invent a perpetual-motion machine? Get lost, will you! – First, they must transport the LNG at -260° F in tankers. Then, what do you do with it? They will need to build special ports to receive LNG, and special facilities to store and transport it throughout the United States. They will have to build an entirely new infrastructure throughout the country, and where will the trillions of dollars come from to build this in a country that is already in over $3 Trillion in debt? Do me a favor Technology Fairy. Get lost! Put an egg in your shoe and beat it!


[TF] Well, if that’s the way you feel about it, go drown in your misery. What a grouch! I have a million ideas of how to get more oil. What about all those Tar Sands in Canada? Maybe there’s some on Mars. There’ll always be a technological fix right around the corner. Off I go to find one. Don’t worry – be happy. La De Dah De Dah – – – – – – – – [exit stage R]


[KF] Well, I sure hope we’ve seen the last Fairy.

[voice from audience –“Don’t you bet on it”!]

[KF] The end of cheap oil will obviously have profound effects on our lives, both upon our economy and our social structure.

The Great Denial

There are two other things I would like you to think about coming out of this discussion – myths and psychology.
Most people do not think that our modern, technological, rational culture has any myths. Myths are for ancient Greeks with their Olympian Gods and for African witch doctors, and Siberian Shamans.
How many of you think that our culture has any myths? – – – – -
Good. We just talked extensively about two of them. Can you name them for me?
…. 1. The resources of the Universe are inexhaustible. i.e. the Horn of Plenty myth
2. There is a Technological Fix for everything.

 

Ancient Pathways Group, End of oil, Peak Oil, Programs, The Earth

Hunter Gatherers – Brutish Or Brilliant?

Dec 19th, 10 / 0 Comments

 

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Neanderthals played music

  HUNTER GATHERERS, BRUTISH OR BRILLIANT?

by Ken Fischman, Ph.D. and Lanie Johnson, M.A.

 

(PF)  1. MUSIC (Bayaka track 1, women gathering mushrooms)

(J J)    2.  INTRODUCTIONS

(K)    3.  THE END OF OIL

Q         Russia and the Ukraine have been in the news lately.  Can anyone tell me what it’s about?  (Discussion).  The first shot has been fired in what I call the Resource Wars.  Essentially, Russia turned off the spigot on the Natural Gas it pipes into the Ukraine, which is needed to heat homes during the Winter. You see, Russia wants to increase the cost by 400%.  Not nice.

         You may be wondering what this has to do with HGs.  A  lot.  You see, the world is running out of oil and Natural Gas, and this will change our economy and culture drastically.  We will be forced to reinvent a sustainable society.  Once upon a time, we did have a sustainable society.

         The present situation requires a little explanation.  Back in 1956, an oil Geologist by the name of L. King Hubbert published a paper in which he calculated that oil production in the US would peak in about 1972, and would drop every year thereafter. A lot of smart people derided Hubbert. After all, at the time, the US was the world’s leading producer of oil. 

         1972 was the year in which they stopped laughing at Hubbert.  US oil production did indeed peak in 1972, and it has dropped every year since then.  That year became famous in some circles as “Hubbert’s Peak.”

         Oil is a finite resource.  They aren’t making it any more.

         Hubbert’s students and followers have refined his methods and used them to predict when World Oil production will peak. Most of them say between 2008 and 2012.  A few say that we have already passed it.

         You may have noticed that the wholesale price of oil hit almost $70/barrel  a few days ago.  Some experts say that it is just a spike due to temporary conditions.  Don’t be fooled.  These are the same kind of guys who laughed at Hubbert in ‘56.  Some facts are simply too ugly to face, especially when your whole lifestyle is at risk.

         Try to imagine automobile gas at $10-20/gallon.  Our whole culture is built on cheap energy.  Autos and trucks, home heating, industry, medicine, food.  Agriculture runs on oil and NG – fertilizer, pesticides, transport to market, etc.

                   What will happen? Will we go back to the stone age?  I doubt it.  We                    will probably go back to the 1890s instead, and those days weren’t so bad.                     Small towns, local economies, extended families.  Are there ways to live a                  good life without buying lots of “stuff” and flying to Mexico every winter?                       You bet. 

Tonight we will look at a culture that did not depend on oil.  We can’t go back to the woods again, all 9.2 billion of us, but perhaps we can learn some lessons and extract some principles from these people that will be helpful to us.

(L+K)  4.  DUELING QUOTES

BRUTISH

•         “Primitive People were wild animals . . . (they) were not pleasant people. They were fearful and cruel creatures, who beat and killed and robbed whenever they had a chance.

         They did not have names like you and me. They had names like Umfa Umfa and Itchy Scratchy.

         Their only rule of life was hurt and kill what you can, and run from what you can’t. This is what we call the first law of nature—every man for himself. They knew if they didn’t kill they would be killed, for there were no laws nor police to protect them.”        

         –V. M. Hillyer, Headmaster of Calvert School; author of A Child’s History of the World

 

•          (in a state of Nature): “No arts, no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear and danger of violent death; and the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.”

         -Thomas Hobbes, 17th century

 

•         The South American Campa Tribe, “degraded and ignorant beings, they lead a life exotic, purely animal, savage, in which are eclipsed the faint glimmerings of their reason, in which are drowned the weak pangs of their conscience, and all the instincts and lusts of animal existence alone float and are reflected.”

         -Manuel Navarro, La Tribu Campa, quoted in Gerald Weiss, American Museum of Natural History Anthropological Papers

 

•         “Through 97 percent of history, man lived by hunting and nomadic pasturage. During those 975,000 years his basic character was formed – to greedy acquisitiveness, violent pugnacity and lawless sexuality.”

-Will Durant, “A Last Testament to Youth,” Columbia Dispatch Mag

 

•         ancient people. . . “were not conscious. They were what we would call signal-bound, that is, responding each minute to cues in a stimulus-response manner, and controlled by those cues.”

         -Julian Jaynes, The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind

BRILLIANT

•regarding the Noble Savage (from poem by John Dryden, 17th century):

         “nothing can be more gentle than he in his primitive state, when placed by nature at an equal distance from the stupidity of brutes and the pernicious good sense of civilized man.”

         -Jean-Jacques Rousseau, 18th century

•         “The Sng’oi (Malaysian hunter-gatherers) had all the time in the world . . . They did not slave in gardens; they did not work to get ahead; they were not stressed by keeping office hours or schedules.  There was nothing they had to do.  They enjoyed living; they smiled a great deal, and laughed, and made jokes.”

         – Robert Wolff, Psychologist and author of Original Wisdom

                                                            -            -            -

• (about the Bushmen) “. . . there is no evidence for exploitation on the basis of sex or age. . . (but) a continuous struggle against one’s own selfish, arrogant, and antisocial impulses. . . A sharing way of life is not only possible but has actually existed in many parts of the world and over long periods of time.”

         -Richard Lee, The !Kung San

 

•         “Among those relict tribal peoples who seem to live at peace with their world, who feel themselves to be guests rather than masters. . .(is a way of life to which our development) was fitted by natural selection, fostering a calendar of mental growth, cooperation, leadership, and the study of a mysterious and beautiful world where the clues to the meaning of life were embodied in natural things”

         -Paul Shepard, Nature and Madness

 

•          The Ituri pygmies, who all show “humor, gaiety, reflectiveness. . .  contradict the conventional image of preliterate peoples as divested of ego and personality.”

         -Murray Bookchin, The Rise of Urbanization and the Decline of Citizenship

(L)     5.  PLAN FOR PRESENTATION

         Now that we have that straight – – let me tell you about our plan for this presentation. We first got interested in HGs around 20 years ago. In Tom Brown’s week-long wilderness survival classes in the woods, we practiced what he called “the old ways.” – like shelter & friction-fire making (skills we’ll be teaching at the workshop in June). We realized that instead of just practicing skills; we were actually following the lifestyle of ancient people. We began reading about these ancient ancestors. As we took more classes and read more books – we were hooked!

         Tonight we’re going to follow the ancient tradition of making winter the time for stories & discussion. We’ll share with you what we found out about what HGs were really like.

         We found neither Rousseau’s Noble Savage nor Hobbes’ Nasty Brute, but real, science-based descriptions. This has been a fascinating and often surprising exploration for us and we think it will be the same for you – – about what we can learn from HGs in addition to wilderness survival skills.

(K)    A.  THE BRUTES

         (subject is Social Interaction – no images)

         You have heard conflicting opinions from eminent writers, historians, and scientists.  Tonight, you will get the chance to look at the evidence and decide for yourself.  Let me introduce you to the subject of our presentation.

Ladies and Gentlemen, meet the BRUTES!                                                   (A100 Forest Pygmy dance of joy with Bayaka track 3, Boyobi – 40 sec.)

         Who are these people, and what are they doing?  These are the Efe Pygmies of the Zaire Rain Forest.  They have just completed a successful hunt, and are dancing for joy.

         The Pygmies are formidable hunters.  They can even bring down Forest Elephants, but most often they hunt with nets.  Each family within the group is in charge of making and repairing one segment of the net. They start from scratch, making the cordage from plant fibers.  (Those of you who take our Field Class will have the opportunity to make cordage just as these people do).  The net is about the height of a volleyball net but much longer – about 50 yards.  The men string it up on trees and bushes and connect all the nets to form a horseshoe-shaped trap about a quarter of a mile long.  The women, children, and elders drive the animals into the open end of the net by shouting and making noise.

         You see, hunting is a family and group affair with Pygmies and perfectly fits their socially cooperative lifestyle.

         You have been hearing their music as recorded by musicologist Louis Sarno.  From time to time we will play more of their music.  It is in a pentatonic scale.  Keep that in mind.  It will turn out to be important for you to know.

(K)     B.  HG DEFINITION

B100 Cartoon-ABO Job Application

         There is some confusion about the difference between Hunter-Gatherers, Indigenous people, Primitive or Tribal people, and so on.  People like the Massai and Bantu of Africa, and most east coast American Indians, are not Hunter-Gatherers.  They are or were horticulturalists, that is, people who till small gardens, or agriculturalists who farm, or pastoralists who herd animals.

         The Hunter-Gatherers are none of these.  They pursue an ancient lifestyle, which goes back to the very beginnings of Mankind. 

         As their name implies, they hunt animals and gather wild plants they find around them.  They live in small groups or bands of 10-30 related  persons, who are usually an extended family.  They usually marry outside their band to others from related bands, who are in contact with them.

         They have no hereditary or elected leaders. They make decisions by consensus and have a cooperative, sharing society. Of course, this doesn’t mean they never get angry, jealous, or mean.  However, they have created a culture in which such behavior is minimalized.

         Most of their possessions are communal.  They are Renaissance men and women.  Everyone in the group above the age of 12-13 has all the skills necessary to live their life style, and if they should get separated from the group they could get on just fine.  Contrast this with the average High School graduate in the US.  Plunk them down in the middle of the Zaire rain forest or for that matter the middle of New York City and see how long they could survive without all their support systems.

         Who are these people and do they still exist?  Yes, they do, mostly tucked away in inhospitable corners of the world.

C.  ART, SKILLS, & EVOLUTION

(C 200 cartoon ABO horoscope)

         INTRO: most history books dismiss ancient HGs in just a few

paragraphs as “prehistory” if they mention them at all.  You get the idea that real, important history begins 7 – 10,000 years ago, with the invention of agriculture, the written word and walled cities. In fact, civilization is usually defined in this way, including monumental architecture, hierarchical social orders, & wars.

         Keep in mind, however, that HGs of one kind or another have existed for a lot longer than our culture has. In fact, we have been HGs for 99% of the time that humans have walked the Earth.

         In the course of this evening, you will discover what sort of beings HGs were & still are, because they are among us even now. Were they brutal, savage scavengers like Umfa Umfa & Itchy Scratchy, or were they something entirely different?

         I believe that they are worthy of our scrutiny because of our relationship to them. After all, in both a figurative and a real sense, they are our great, great, great grandfathers.

         (L)  (1)  Art           notes:(Kristofer  Y. on Didge during Australian Abo                                     images)

                                    (Kristofer Y, on Flute during flute images)

                  (K) talk about PENTATONIC SCALE while Kris plays flute

                  (C113 -114)

                  (C101 Aust ABO Land Forms) this slide takes us to the desert of Australia. You can see the shimmering horizon in the distance; in the foreground are mountains that the Aborigines see as female bodies. The ABOs have lived in this environment for at least 40,000 years. They are such skilled trackers that today, the Australian police have them on staff to track criminals across the desert sands. This Saturday, we will be tracking in snow, which is a lot easier than sand! (C102, 103, 104)

                  (C105 – 112A)

ART II         (C117 -120)

         (K)  (2)  Skills and (3) Antiquity/evolution

         (C201, 202, 204, 205 bushman 1)

         (C207 pygmy with net)

         (C208, 209 Tasaday)

         (C211 – C301)

1. The Schoningen Spears (C302 Schoningen spear)

         Of all the recent discoveries that are changing our minds about ancient man, the Schoningen Spears top my list. 

         Archaeologist Helmut Thieme was digging in a peat bog, near the Harz mountains in southern Germany.  He was in a hurry. An open-pit coal mine was set to expand into that area in a matter of weeks and that peat bog would be history.  Instead, it became a startling piece of Prehistory.

         He was working at a 50-foot depth when his assistant called him over.  The assistant had found a piece of wood.  That was exciting enough.  Wood and other organic material are rare finds in archaeological excavations.  They usually disappear quickly, victims of microbial and insect activity, leaving only hard evidence like fossilized bones and chipped flints.

         But, peat bogs are different.  They lack oxygen, and this condition preserves organic material.  Thieme and his assistant carefully uncovered the wood.  It was 6 feet long and narrow.  Then they got to the tip.  It had been sharpened to a point!  What they had was a spear!  When they got to the other end, another surprise awaited them.  It too narrowed to a point.  It was not only a spear, but it was a throwing spear, a javelin.  All this in a layer of the bog that was known to be 400,000 years old.  It was not Homo sapiens, but Homo erectus, an ancestral species who made this spear.

         More surprises awaited them when they analyzed their find back at the laboratory.  The spear was made from the trunk of a 30-year-old spruce tree with its anterior end toward the base of the trunk.  That meant that it contained heartwood, the hardest part of the tree, where the tree rings are closest together.  Furthermore, it was carved in such a way that half of its weight was in the forward third of the spear, which gave it perfect aerodynamics.  That is the way an Olympic javelin is designed. .  This was no accidentally sharpened piece of wood.

         Back at the peat bog, they found 6 other such Javelins.         Thieme’s report sent a shock wave through the Paleontological world.  This fellow Homo erectus, was a lot smarter than they had thought.  The spears’ manufacture took planning and forethought.  Its existence also meant that Homo erectus was no Hyena-like scavenger, but a hunter.  And, hunting implied cooperation and cleverness, perhaps even language needed to coordinate the strategy of the hunters.  After all they were after large mobile game such as horses, and as thousands of butchered bones at the site testify, they were often successful. And the use of a javelin meant that the hunters did not have to get up close and personal with a quick and potentially dangerous prey animal.  They could kill or wound it from afar.  Next best thing to a 30-30 with telescopic sight.

         Of course there were a few nay-sayers.  It wouldn’t be science if there weren’t.  One of them doubted that it was a javelin. He said that he had looked through many weighty anthropological texts and found that only 1/96 contemporary HG cultures used spears for throwing and not for thrusting. It sounded impressive.

         Anthropologists love controversy.  They can then speculate endlessly.  Well, as the Irishman asked when he entered a bar in which a brawl was going on, “ Is this a private fight, or can anyone join in”?

         I joined in by asking what’s the point of having a thrusting spear sharpened at both ends? (Please excuse the pun).   Furthermore, how would that critic explain this [show Bushman throwing spear image – C203]         I rest my case.

2.  The Bilzingsleben Bones (C303 – 307)

Homo floriensis and Homo sapiens

"Hobbit" skull compared with that of a modern human

         Most archaeological digs of ancient man are bleak places.  A few trenches and some wooden stakes connected by strings, are all you can see. They give you no idea about how our ancestors lived. 

         Bilzingsleben in the former East Germany is different.  It is a site on a wind-swept moor, along a small stream that leads into a nearby lake.  It looks like a scene out of Wuthering Heights.

         It clearly was a hunting camp.

           Scientists have uncovered 3 small round or oval dwellings, whose foundations were made of rocks and animal bones.  This immediately brought to my mind arctic river trips I have read about in which the authors found rings of rocks and bones where the Inuit Eskimos had their dwellings.  Those of you who attended our first workshop may remember one of the main rules of survival – use what is handy.

         The next part described brought back other memories.  It was a pit, on the periphery of the camp, and far away from the other structures. It was filled with flint fragments and had anvil stones around it.  I flashed back to the Rabbitstick primitive skills rendezvous that Lanie & I like to attend.  There is an area set aside, far from the other busy camp activities.  It consists of a pit with a few logs around it where the flint-nappers work.  Flint, chert, and obsidian have the sharpest edges in the world, and they would not want the many children that frequent the camp, or anyone else for that matter, to blunder in there with bare feet.  The inhabitants of the Bilzingsleben camp had obviously taken similar precautions. 

         There was another area away from the dwellings that was a refuse site.  I guess they didn’t like the idea of someone walking through the camp and carelessly throwing away banana peels or whatever.  Again, we had a similar place at Rabbitsick, but I doubt that the Bilzinglebeners had garbage cans.

         There were also signs of hearths.

         Archaeologists also found 4 intentionally-marked elephant bones.  The bones had many parallel lines, all engraved by the same instrument, and one had a zig zag, made without lifting the engraving tool.  When archaeologists find such bones they assume that they are counters of some sort – perhaps calendars.

         Well, of course I have been keeping you in suspense about who did all these things. Now it’s time to “fess” up.  The Archaelogists also found molar teeth and skull fragments, which they identified as belonging to our old friend, Homo erectus. The erectus bones were dated at 300-350 thousand years old. 

         A lot of anthropologists had figured that Homo erectus was hardly smarter than a Chimpanzee because he had a similar brain capacity.

         Now lets see, these Homo erectus built dwellings, kept separate sanitary and tool building sites, perhaps knew fire, and kept records of something.  I don’t know if his references were Baboons, but I am impressed.

(L)    ANNOUNCEMENT: before we take a short 10-minute break, I’d like to tell you that there is still room the Sat. Field Class on (2/4) (2/11). You can see Joyce Jowdy about signing up. (Joyce, would you please stand up). We’ll start again at (0:00)

BREAK         (Joshua passes sign-up sheet & booklist just after break)

D.  LIFESTYLE

(K)  Anecdote: (Social Interaction)

A couple of years ago I heard a young  Peace Corps volunteer being interviewed on NPR about her experience in a remote mountain village in S. America.  She had gone there to teach the Indigenous people and help them build, modern hygienic facilities such as pit toilets. 

         She had been amazed to find how happy these people were despite their poverty and lack of modern sanitary facilities.  She could not understand at first, why they could be so happy despite endemic disease,  the dirt streets of the village, and the wretched huts of the people.  This was contrary to her understanding, as an American, that “stuff” brings happiness.  These people had hardly any “stuff,” but after a while she realized that that they did have things lacking in her home town, like extended families, community, and a cohesive culture,.  After a while, even she became happy there, and she longed to return to the village.”

         (L)  (1)  Diversity & Similarity

         As Ken said before, we’re not discussing tribal people (there were very few HGs in colonial times here in the US – – the Apache in the SW, Calusa in FL & Sheepeaters in ID) but HGs are to be found worldwide, both historical and contemporary (Australian Aborigines, Kalahari Bushmen, African Forest Pygmies). HGs had or have very different lifestyles – based on their environment – tools, diet, many different ways to make fire – BUT along with this diversity, there are consistent similarities: -

         (L)  (2)  Social Interaction –

                           D201 -215B Bushmen 2

slide show:         D216 – D221 Pygmies 2

         These images will give you an idea of social interaction among modern Bushmen and Pygmies.

         • These people are non-hierarchical and cooperative – as when some British people taught Australian ABOs to play soccer. The ABOs caught on quickly and played well, but surprised the Brits when they played until each team had made a goal, and then stopped.  They figured that was the object of the game.

         • What about us? In the US a recent research project was reported by the NYT in which MRIs were used to test subjects for cooperative behavior. They played a game in which people were paid differing amounts each time they chose to cooperate or not to cooperate with each other. Mutual cooperation was the most profitable overall, but there was a built-in risk that one player might choose non-cooperation for short-term gain. The researchers were surprised to find that most players chose cooperation and during cooperative choices, the MRI showed that the pleasure pathways in the brain were highly lit up. As one researcher said, “we’re wired to cooperate with each other.”

         (L)  (3) Economics

         Society and Economy are a chicken and egg situation, but now that you’ve seen a bit of the society, here is some information on their economy. As Ken described earlier, HGs were small, nomadic bands of extended family members – with no permanent dwelling, no private property, and no storage of food. They carried very little with them. If they needed a tool, it was easy to make quickly because raw materials were free and available to all (and of course they had the skills to make the tools). They had everything they needed because their needs were so simple. As Marshall Sahlins, author of Stone Age Economics, put it: “we are inclined to think of Hunters and Gatherers as poor because they don’t have anything; perhaps better to think of them for that reason as free. “  Free for what? to enjoy life!

         (L)  (4) Physical Health

         What about the health of HGs? Let me ask you for a couple of estimates: what would you say is the current world-wide average life expectancy? (67) What is average HG life expectancy? (I found a range of 54.1 – 67.1) One more question: what percentage of deaths in industrialized countries are caused by cancer, heart disease, diabetes, emphysema & cirrhosis of the liver? (more than 75%) These so-called diseases of civilization are close to non-existent in HG cultures.

         Now, here’s a little food for thought: from a rare study on HG diet and health. Back in the 1920s and 30s, Dr. Weston A. Price, a dentist practicing in Cleveland, was concerned about the cause of increasing dental decay in his young patients. He traveled all over the world and visited primitive people who were totally isolated from modern civilization and lived exclusively on indigenous diets. He concluded that tooth decay and bodily disease were promoted by nutritional deficiencies. He also observed that whenever any members of these groups adopted modern, refined foods, there would be a consistent degeneration of their health followed by that of any babies born after the change in diet.

         Among the people he visited and examined were Eskimos of Alaska, South Pacific Islanders, Africans and Australian Aborigines. Although their diets varied widely, all of their diets provided fresh, whole natural materials for body building and repair, including minerals and vitamins necessary for mineral absorption. Some North Canadian Indians ate the organs of Caribou and fed the muscle meat to their dogs. Dr. Price analyzed 14 different diets that consistently provided almost complete immunity to dental decay along with high resistance to disease. Here is diversity and similarity again!

D401         / These Melanesian Island boys lived on shellfish, regular fish, fruits, greens, roots & coconuts. Although they seem to have a family resemblance, they were born on 4 different tropical islands. They are not brothers but healthy individuals expressing their hereditary racial characteristics.

D402         compare their diet with that of the Australian Aborigines who lived in the desert with little rain & infertile soil: wallaby, kangaroo and rodent – muscle & organ meat – plus insects, beetles, grubs, roots, stems, leaves, grass seed & berries. / One of these 4 women followed this diet; the other 3 exhibit the deformities & low immunity that Dr. Price found typical of those whose parents had adopted a modern diet: narrow face due to inadequate bone structure, pinched nostrils, narrow dental arches and therefore, crowded teeth. He found that traditional ABOs (many of whom never brushed their teeth at all) had no cavities, while those on a modern diet had 70.9% cavities.

D403         / Although deformities cannot be reversed, Dr. Price does indicate hope for people on our modern diet. Both of these girls are patients of his from an American family. The one on the left shows the narrow face and crowded teeth. Her birth required 53 hours of labor. Her mother subsequently changed her diet to include milk, green vegetables, sea foods, organ meats and high-vitamin butter & CLO. The younger sister on the right needed only 2 hours of labor and you can see the difference in the form of her face and teeth. 

         (K)  (5)  Psychological Health –

When did Empathy/Compassion arise?  Here is some evidence to consider in that regard:

           •“Nandy” of Shanidar Cave

          (a) An intentional burial of a 40 year-old Neanderthal, now nicknamed “Nandy” was found in the Shanidar Cave, in Iraq, and dated from 46 – 60 thousand years ago.  “Nandy’s most striking feature was that he had a withered right side, obviously a congenital defect.  His collar bone, shoulder bone and arm bone were all underdeveloped.  The arm bone had been deliberately amputated in later life, and the stump had had time to heal.  In addition he had worn-down teeth, healed head wounds, and was blind in his right eye.  He was a mess!

         The question is how did he survive all those years in such helpless condition if life then was “survival of the fittest,” and it was every man for himself?   Obviously, he had to have a great deal of continuing support.  I wonder what the author of “A Child’s History of the World” would say about “Nandy” and his buddies?  Does empathy appear even earlier in man’s history?  We shall see:

         (b)  The Flower Burial

         As though “Nandy” was not a startling enough discovery at Shanidar Cave, there was yet another surprise lying there.  Another adult male, 50-60 years old, was found buried, and he had at least 7 species of flowers or herbs sprinkled over him.  They were not just any old pretty flowers either.  Most of them, such as Yarrow and Ephedra, had obvious pharmacological properties, showing a knowledge of “folk” medicine, and perhaps the hope that he would eventually be healed, even after death.

         •  The Toothless Man of Dmanisi         D501

         My son, the journalist, traveled to the little town of Dmanisi, in the Georgia Republic a few months ago.  Besides a nice little vacation, he had another object.  He wanted to look at a skull recently dug up there.  It wasn’t the first skull found there.  There have been 7 others, all of them some form of H. erectus. 

         They are located on a plateau, high above the confluence of two streams, apparently an ideal place to corner food animals.  Dmanisi shows all the signs of having been a H. erectus hunting camp for thousands of years.  There are lots of animal bones lying around, and many of them show cuts indicating butchery.  There are also hand axes all over the place.

         So, what was so unusual about that skull that brought Josh thousands of mile to view it?  Just this, The skull is toothless, and it also shows regrowth of the jaw after the teeth fell out.  Same old question.  Who took care of this guy?  Did someone grind up his food so that he could swallow it?  And, most important, how could this have happened if H. erectus was such a thug?  Do thugs have compassion?  Oh, I forgot to tell you.  This skull is 1.8 million years old.

         One more thing –archaeologists have puzzled over all the rounded river stones found in the camp.  They had to be brought up from the streams below with considerable effort.  Obviously, the archaeologist’s knowledge of hunting and gathering is purely academic.  They must never attended primitive skills rendezvous.  If you come to our skills intensive in June, we will show you how to make a quicky discoidal knife from river stones.

K      (6) Parenting/Child Rearing         D502

Story:  A few weeks ago, I happened to be in Staples, when a woman came in wheeling a baby carriage.  At least I think it was a baby carriage, but it didn’t look like the one I pushed my kids in long ago.

         In fact, it looked more like an armored tank than a carriage.  It was made of some heavy-gauge, gray-colored plastic material, and had about as many wheels as an armoured personnel carrier.  However, the thing that startled me was the top.  It was also of the same gray plastic material and resembled the top of a tank, complete with turret.  It also had what looked like bullet-proof shielding on it that completely closed the inside of the turret to view.

         And, it was the inside that I wanted to look at because from the stygian depths of that armored vehicle came an incessant, though muffled wailing that never stopped, not even for 2 seconds.     

         The desperation of the occupant was obvious to me, but not apparently to the mother.  She appeared absolutely oblivious of the situation inside the perambulator/tank as she wheeled it up and down the aisles, picking up various items of merchandise, which she then piled on its top.  How convenient!

         This went on for a full 10 minutes until she arrived at the cash register, and had completely carried out her apparently complicated financial transaction.  It was then, and only then, that she opened the visor of the armored vehicle, reached in, and lifted out a tiny, dark-haired, infant who was obviously only a few weeks old.  She placed him/her/it against her shoulder, and the desperate wailing instantly stopped.  It was obvious now what that baby had wanted.

         I can only imagine the terror that child felt, swaddled in something resembling a sleeping bag, and trapped inside its dark, and probably almost airless and soundless “Black hole of Calcutta.”

Bushman and Pygmy Parenting

         Let us turn to a more pleasant subject, the parenting behavior of the savage iKung! or San Bushmen of the Kalahari desert.  Many anthropologists have studied them.  The situation reminds me of a story Joseph Campbell told about the interaction between the Navajo and anthropologists in the 1930s.  The typical Navajo family he said, consists of a mother, father, child and 2 anthropologists.  The point is, that Bushman parenting has been thoroughly documented.

         The Bushmen raise their children together, the babies are in constant contact with their mothers and are carried everywhere all the time.  San babies are never left alone.  Bushman mothers sleep in contact with them, and The babies breast-feed continuously.  Mothers respond to crying within 10 seconds, over 90% of the time.  Can’t you just see that anthropologist standing there with his stop watch?

         Bushman children control their own breast-feeding, which continues for the first 3-4 years of the child’s life.  By the way, continuous breast-feeding stops ovulation and of course prevents fertilization.  This is one of the Bushman’s main ways of population control, which has worked well in a area with limited biological carrying capacity for who knows how many hundreds or thousands of years. 

         Is this behavior an anomaly, or is it similar to that of other Hunter-Gatherers?  Let’s look at the Efe Pygmies of the Ituri rainforest. After all, it is very different environment from that of the Bushmen.  The Pygmies have a parenting strategy that differs in detail from that of the Bushman, but you will see that the basic principles are the same.

         Pygmies bond to many babies and child care is a group activity.  The babies are passed among group mothers, carried to foraging sites, and their care is shared.  Please note: this is also true for males.  All mothers respond to fussing, giving the breast even if it is not her baby.  This multiple caretaking model fits the way of life of a social, interacting band, in which communal connections are the basis of their economic pattern and the foundation of their social system.        

(L) We are very fortunate to have as our guest tonight, Dr. Jack Wright, whom some of you may know by his marital name, Oakwright. He has been a psychologist in Sandpoint since 1975 and is President-elect of the Idaho Psychological Association.

(JO)  Brain Development/Dr. Jack Wright

E.   BELIEFS

(K)             (1)  Physical Evidence         E101 – 103

         The Mind of Paleolithic man, The Hunter-Gatherer:

         How far back does Man’s intelligence and sense of aesthetics and beauty go?   Thirty thousand year old flutes, cunningly carved from the wing bones of Swans and Mammoth ivory, demonstrate planning, impressive craftsmanship, and love of music.  Four hundred thousand-year-old throwing spears (or Javelins) show that H. erectus was no unconscious thinking scavenger, but was capable of forethought, and able to learn skills handed down from others.  But, were these guys religious? 

         Deliberate Burials:

         So far, there are no hints of any religious thoughts on the part of H. erectus.  However, there were deliberate burials of Neanderthals.  Do they represent thoughts of an afterlife or a return from death?  The position of the buried person, often in a fetal position, and facing East toward the rising sun, indicate hope for renewal just as the Sun is reborn each day.  The inclusion of tools, weapons, and ornamentation shows the hope for a return in which the buried party will find all the possessions needed to carry on his/her life again.  Some burials also contained offerings of such things as deer antlers, boar jaws, flint tools, and Red Deer jaw bones.  There are other clues.

         Cave Bear Grottos:

          High up in the Alps grottos have been discovered in which many Cave Bear skulls have been carefully arranged.  Cave Bears are thought to represent the Animal Master, whose propitiation would hopefully insure the return the next year of Man’s principal food animals. 

         Religious thoughts:

         Cro-Magnon cave paintings in France and Spain, such as the “Sorcier des Trois Freres” may also represent Animal Masters or some kind of sympathetic magic, insuring the success of the The Great Hunt, which was surely early Man’s greatest occupation.  His view of the Earth as sacred is demonstrated in contemporary HGs like Australian Aborigines, who see animate forms in natural geography, like the “woman’s legs” in NW Australia.

(L)             (2)  Cosmology

         What about HG cosmology? that is, beliefs about the relationship between humans & Nature. One expression of their cosmology is in the games they play. The widespread incidence of games of chance (gambling, really) shows an underlying philosophy that life is a game of chance; in other words, acceptance of Nature and what it brings. On the other hand, games of strategy, which appeared later, among agriculturalists, indicate interest in control.

         Ancient myths are often about animals as the first people – or older brothers – who are valued as teachers. HG religion is usually called Animism, or the belief that everything in the world is alive and has a spirit: people, animals, birds, trees, rocks, water, etc. It’s based on respect for the natural world and all its beings.  This is illustrated by an incident recorded in a book by an anthropologist who had lived with Efe Pygmies:

         “The moon was full, so the dancing had gone on for longer than usual.  Just before going to sleep I was standing before my hut when I heard a curious noise from the children’s nearby bopi (i.e. a play field).  This surprised me because at nighttime the pygmies generally never set a foot outside the main camp.  I wandered over to see what it was.

         There, in the tiny clearing, splashed with silver, was the sophisticated Kenge, clad in bark cloth, adorned with leaves, with a flower stuck in his hair.  He was all alone, dancing around and singing softly to himself as he gazed up to the treetops.

         … After watching for a while, I came into the clearing and asked jokingly, why he was dancing alone.  He stopped, turned slowly around and looked at me as though I was the biggest fool he had ever seen; and he was plainly surprised at my stupidity.

         “But I’m not dancing alone.” he said.  “I am dancing with the moon.”  Then, with utmost unconcern, he ignored me and continued his dance of love and life.”

                  -Dancing with the Moon, The Forest People, p272

         You are probably familiar with the following testament of Animist beliefs – it may not be exact, because it was written down about 40 years after it was spoken, but we’ve never found a more accurate, concise or poetic expression of Animist beliefs:

(K)             (3)  Chief Seattle’s Speech        

 “The President in Washington sends word that he wishes to buy our land. But how can you buy or sell the sky? The land? The idea is strange to us. If we do not own the freshness of the air and the sparkle of the water, how can you buy them?

         Every part of this earth is sacred to my people. Every shining pine needle, every sandy shore, every mist in the dark woods, every meadow, every humming insect. All are holy in the memory and experience of my people.

         We know the sap which courses through the trees as we know the blood that courses through our veins. We are part of the earth and it is part of us. The perfumed flowers are our sisters. The bear, the deer, the great eagle, these are our brothers.

         The rivers are our brothers. They quench our thirst. They carry our canoes and feed our children. So you must give to the rivers the kindness you would give any brother.

         If we sell you our land, remember that the air is precious to us,  that the air shares its spirit with all the life it supports. The wind that gave our grandfather his first breath also receives his last sigh. The wind also gives our children the spirit of life.

         Will you teach your children what we have taught our children? That the earth is our mother? What befalls the earth befalls all the sons of the earth.

         This we know: the earth does not belong to man, man belongs to the earth. All things are connected like the blood that unites us all. Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself.

         As we are part of the land, you too are part of the land. This earth is precious to us. It is also precious to you. One thing we know: there is only one God. No man, be he Red Man or White Man, can be apart. We are brothers after all.”

(L)        F.  COMMONALITIES/SUSTAINABILITY – Audience

         Ken has shown that HGs, both ancient & contemporary, are just like us – physically & psychologically. Although their societies are very different from ours, we still have a lot in common:

(1) commonalities        

         • how many of you, when feeling weighed down by cares, go for a walk in the woods or a park to “de-stress”?

         • how many like to camp, hike, fish, hunt, travel, wander?

         • how many enjoy drumming, singing, dancing, storytelling (including ghost stories) around a fire circle?

         • how many have played games of chance or stalking games like “capture the flag”?

         • how many eat (or try to eat) a natural, whole-foods diet/organic foods?

         • how many are interested in animals – wildlife, bird watching, pets (echo of primal state)

         • how many interested in “Voluntary Simplicity”?

         • how many were NOT surprised at the results of the cooperativeness          experiment with MRI?

Those who raised their hands a lot are good H-G material!

ANY OTHER THINGS IN COMMON? (ask audience)

 (2) Sustainability

we can’t go back to live as HGs did, BUT we can use some of their principles, e.g.:

wants vs. needs (as in wilderness survival)

living according to the carrying capacity of the land

connection and respect for Nature, other beings

role of elders as teachers & arbitrators

OTHERS? (ask audience)

(K+L)  G.  CONCLUSIONS & DISCUSSION

(K) This is the time when Presenters usually sum up and offer their conclusions.  We thought that we would do it differently this time and ask you what your conclusions are.

         Do you have any conclusions?

         What have you gotten out of this presentation?

         Do you have questions?  

            H.  GOODBYES

(L)         We’d like to extend our special thanks to our sponsors, the Bonner County Library and PFOS, especially Paul Fosselman, Joyce Jowdy and Becky Kemery. Also to Dr. Jack Wright, Diana Scott for her Australian slides, (Lynx Vilden for her Kootenai River Project slides) (Kristofer Yamada) (Yontan Gompo) Joshua Walters (and Chris Anderson) for their help. We especially thank the Librarians, Gloria Ray and Sue Elsa, who dug up valuable material we could not find ourselves.

We’ll leave you with this Bushman poem:

A woman calls:                           Then a man replies:

                  Under the sun                                    Oh listen to the wind

                  the Earth is dry.                           You woman there;

                  By the fire,                                    The time is coming,

                  Alone I cry.                              The rain is near.

                  All day long                            Listen to your heart,

                  The Earth cries                            Your hunter is here.

                  For the rain to come.

                  All night my heart cries          -Bushman Rain Song,

                  For my hunter to come                  Heart of the Hunter, p234

                  And take me away

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